ASR Advances in Science and Research ASR Adv. Sci. Res. 1992-0636 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/asr-8-77-2012 First outcomes from the CNR-ISAC monthly forecasting system Mastrangelo D. 1 Malguzzi P. 1 Rendina C. 1 Drofa O. 1 Buzzi A. 1 Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Bologna, Italy 16 04 2012 8 1 77 82 Copyright: © 2012 D. Mastrangelo et al. 2012 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/8/77/2012/asr-8-77-2012.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://asr.copernicus.org/articles/8/77/2012/asr-8-77-2012.pdf

A monthly probabilistic forecasting system is experimentally operated at the ISAC institute of the National Council of Research of Italy. The forecasting system is based on GLOBO, an atmospheric general circulation model developed at the same institute. The model is presently run on a monthly basis to produce an ensemble of 32 forecasts initialized with GFS-NCEP perturbed analyses. Reforecasts, initialized with ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses of the 1989–2009 period, are also produced to determine modelled climatology of the month to forecast. The modelled monthly climatology is then used to calibrate the ensemble forecast of daily precipitation, geopotential height and temperature on standard pressure levels. In this work, we present the forecasting system and a preliminary evaluation of the model systematic and forecast errors in terms of non-probabilistic scores of the 500-hPa geopotential height. Results show that the proposed forecasting system outperforms the climatology in the first two weeks of integrations. The adopted calibration based on weighted bias correction is found to reduce the systematic and the forecast errors.

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