Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-51-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-51-2015
14 Apr 2015
 | 14 Apr 2015

Towards an integrated probabilistic nowcasting system (En-INCA)

M. Suklitsch, A. Kann, and B. Bica

Related authors

The effect of empirical-statistical correction of intensity-dependent model errors on the temperature climate change signal
A. Gobiet, M. Suklitsch, and G. Heinrich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4055–4066, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4055-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4055-2015, 2015
Short summary

Cited articles

Bowler, N. E., Pierce, C. E., and Seed, A. W.: STEPS: A probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme which merges an extrapolation nowcast with downscaled NWP, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 132, 2127–2155, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.100, 2006.
Gerard, L., Piriou, J. M., Brozkova, R., Geleyn, J.-F., and Banciu, D.: Cloud and precipitation parameterization in a meso-gamma scale operational weather prediction model, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 3960–3977, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR2750.1, 2009.
Haiden, T., Kann, A., Wittmann, C., Pistotnik, G., Bica, B., and Gruber, C.: The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system and its validation over the Eastern Alpine region, Weather Forecast., 26, 166–183, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222451.1, 2011.
Silvestro, F., Rebora, N., Cummings, G., and L. Ferraris: Experiences of dealing with flash floods using an ensemble hydrological nowcasting chain: Implications of communication, accessibility, and distribution of results, J. Flood Risk Manage., https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12161, in press, 2015.
Wang, Y., Kann, A., Bellus, M., Pailleux, J., and Wittmann, C.: A strategy for perturbing surface initial conditions in LAMEPS, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 11, 108–113, 2010.
Download
Short summary
Ensemble prediction systems are becoming of more and more interest for various applications. They are used to account for uncertainties that exist from the very beginning of a forecast due to the chaotic behavior of atmospheric processes as well as approximations in numerical models. Ensemble nowcasting systems are therefore increasingly requested by end users. In this study we show that En-INCA, an integrated probabilistic nowcasting system, is able to improve existing state-of-the-art LAM-EPS.