20 Apr 2016
Improvement of Solar and Wind forecasting in southern Italy through a multi-model approach: preliminary results
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Lamezia Terme, 88046, Italy
Rosa Claudia Torcasio
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Lamezia Terme, 88046, Italy
Teresa Lo Feudo
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Lamezia Terme, 88046, Italy
Claudia Roberta Calidonna
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Lamezia Terme, 88046, Italy
Daniele Contini
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Lecce, 73100, Italy
Stefano Federico
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate – Italian National Research Council (ISAC-CNR), Rome, 00133, Italy
Related authors
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Elenio Avolio, Ottavio Cavalcanti, Luca Furnari, Alfonso Senatore, and Giuseppe Mendicino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1619–1627, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1619-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1619-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first scientific report of the flash flood of 20 August 2018 on “Raganello Gorge” (Southern Italy), an extreme event with rather specific features (very localized in space and time), which unfortunately caused 10 victims. The meteo-hydrological dynamics were reasonably reconstructed and the forecasting skills were evaluated using an innovative modelling approach, including fully coupled atmospheric-hydrological modelling and improved representation of Sea Surface Temperature.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Stefano Federico, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Elenio Avolio, Oxana Drofa, Tony Christian Landi, Piero Malguzzi, Andrea Buzzi, and Paolo Bonasoni
Ann. Geophys., 34, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market.
This work shows the application of a technique to improve wind forecasting. The study area is southern Italy.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Jonas Elm, Aladár Czitrovszky, Andreas Held, Annele Virtanen, Astrid Kiendler-Scharr, Benjamin J. Murray, Daniel McCluskey, Daniele Contini, David Broday, Eirini Goudeli, Hilkka Timonen, Joan Rosell-Llompart, Jose L. Castillo, Evangelia Diapouli, Mar Viana, Maria E. Messing, Markku Kulmala, Naděžda Zíková, and Sebastian H. Schmitt
Aerosol Research, 1, 13–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-1-13-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ar-1-13-2023, 2023
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Adelaide Dinoi, Daniel Gulli, Kay Weinhold, Ivano Ammoscato, Claudia R. Calidonna, Alfred Wiedensohler, and Daniele Contini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 2167–2181, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2167-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-2167-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, particle number size distribution analysis was performed with the purpose of characterizing new particle formation (NPF) events occurring in two areas of southern Italy over 5 years of measurements. The identification of NPF events produced different results in terms of frequency and seasonality. Some of the main variables involved in the process, the local atmospheric conditions in which the events occurred, and the role of the air masses were discussed and compared.
Riccardo Alvise Mel, Teresa Lo Feudo, Massimo Miceli, Salvatore Sinopoli, and Mario Maiolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-67, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we present a coupled modelling system to compute the wind climate and the hydrodynamic two-dimensional field in coastal areas, with particular reference to the Marine Experimental Station of Capo Tirone (Italy). We combined sea level rise and extreme storm projections with the most recent georeferenced territorial data.
Valeria Lupiano, Francesco Chidichimo, Guillermo Machado, Paolo Catelan, Lorena Molina, Claudia R. Calidonna, Salvatore Straface, Gino M. Crisci, and Salvatore Di Gregorio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A method for risk mitigation of secondary lahars, triggered by violent rainfall, is proposed as an alternative to methods for containment or deviation that could cause future disasters. It is based on controlled generation of small lahars as a result of collapse of frail dams by backfill, forming momentary ponds, as in natural cases. LLUNPIY verifies by simulation path, velocity, thickness, and erosion of lahars that could be produced; a complex case study for Vascún valley, Ecuador, is shown.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Elenio Avolio, Ottavio Cavalcanti, Luca Furnari, Alfonso Senatore, and Giuseppe Mendicino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1619–1627, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1619-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1619-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first scientific report of the flash flood of 20 August 2018 on “Raganello Gorge” (Southern Italy), an extreme event with rather specific features (very localized in space and time), which unfortunately caused 10 victims. The meteo-hydrological dynamics were reasonably reconstructed and the forecasting skills were evaluated using an innovative modelling approach, including fully coupled atmospheric-hydrological modelling and improved representation of Sea Surface Temperature.
Monica Campanelli, Alessandra Mascitelli, Paolo Sanò, Henri Diémoz, Victor Estellés, Stefano Federico, Anna Maria Iannarelli, Francesca Fratarcangeli, Augusto Mazzoni, Eugenio Realini, Mattia Crespi, Olivier Bock, Jose A. Martínez-Lozano, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 81–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-81-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-81-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of precipitable water vapour (W) content is of great interest in both meteorological and climatological studies. Sun photometers allowed the development of W automatic estimations with high temporal resolution. A new methodology, based on the hypothesis that the calibration parameters characterizing the atmospheric transmittance are dependent on vertical profiles of temperature, air pressure and moisture typical of each measurement site, has been presented providing good results.
Stefano Federico, Marco Petracca, Giulia Panegrossi, Claudio Transerici, and Stefano Dietrich
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 187–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-187-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-187-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of using lightning data on the precipitation forecast at different forecast ranges (3–24 h). Twenty case studies, occurred over Italy in fall 2012, are selected to show the impact.
Results show the important and positive impact of using lightning data to improve the precipitation forecast. The time range, however, is very important because the performance decreases steadily and substantially with forecasting time.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Paolo Sanò, Daniele Casella, Monica Campanelli, Jan Fokke Meirink, Ping Wang, Stefania Vergari, Henri Diémoz, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2337–2352, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2337-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we evaluate the performance of two estimates of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), one derived from the Meteosat Second Generation and one from a meteorological model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) forecast. The focus area is Italy, and the performance is evaluated for 12 pyranometers spanning a range of climate conditions, from Mediterranean maritime to Alpine.
Stefano Federico, Marco Petracca, Giulia Panegrossi, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 61–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-61-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-61-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The motivation of this study is to use lightning observations to improve the precipitation forecast at the short range (3 h). For this purpose 20 case studies, occurring in fall 2012, were analyzed using a meteorological model, whose set-up is applicable in real-time weather forecasting. Lightning observations were provided by the LINET network. Results show a systematic improvement of the 3 h precipitation forecast when lightning observations are used.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Stefano Federico, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Elenio Avolio, Oxana Drofa, Tony Christian Landi, Piero Malguzzi, Andrea Buzzi, and Paolo Bonasoni
Ann. Geophys., 34, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market.
This work shows the application of a technique to improve wind forecasting. The study area is southern Italy.
Ulla Wandinger, Volker Freudenthaler, Holger Baars, Aldo Amodeo, Ronny Engelmann, Ina Mattis, Silke Groß, Gelsomina Pappalardo, Aldo Giunta, Giuseppe D'Amico, Anatoli Chaikovsky, Fiodor Osipenko, Alexander Slesar, Doina Nicolae, Livio Belegante, Camelia Talianu, Ilya Serikov, Holger Linné, Friedhelm Jansen, Arnoud Apituley, Keith M. Wilson, Martin de Graaf, Thomas Trickl, Helmut Giehl, Mariana Adam, Adolfo Comerón, Constantino Muñoz-Porcar, Francesc Rocadenbosch, Michaël Sicard, Sergio Tomás, Diego Lange, Dhiraj Kumar, Manuel Pujadas, Francisco Molero, Alfonso J. Fernández, Lucas Alados-Arboledas, Juan Antonio Bravo-Aranda, Francisco Navas-Guzmán, Juan Luis Guerrero-Rascado, María José Granados-Muñoz, Jana Preißler, Frank Wagner, Michael Gausa, Ivan Grigorov, Dimitar Stoyanov, Marco Iarlori, Vincenco Rizi, Nicola Spinelli, Antonella Boselli, Xuan Wang, Teresa Lo Feudo, Maria Rita Perrone, Ferdinando De Tomasi, and Pasquale Burlizzi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1001–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1001-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1001-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the quality-assurance efforts of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) at instrument level. Within several campaigns, 21 EARLINET systems from 18 EARLINET stations were intercompared. A comprehensive strategy for campaign setup and data evaluation was established. The intercomparisons have reinforced our confidence in the EARLINET data quality and allowed us to draw conclusions on necessary system improvements and to identify major challenges for our future work.
L. Tiriolo, R. C. Torcasio, S. Montesanti, A. M. Sempreviva, C. R. Calidonna, C. Transerici, and S. Federico
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 37–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-37-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-37-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We show a study of the prediction of power production of a wind farm located in Central Italy using RAMS model for wind speed forecast.
S. Federico, E. Avolio, M. Petracca, G. Panegrossi, P. Sanò, D. Casella, and S. Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2933–2950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2933-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2933-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the implementation of a simple model for simulating lightning into the RAMS model.
The methodology is applied to six case studies that occurred in central Italy and the results are verified against LINET observations.
Advantages and weaknesses of the methodology are discussed.
S. Federico
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 3563–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Alessandrini, A., Sperati, S., and Pinson, P.: A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data, Appl. Energ., 107, 271–280, 2013.
Chen, C. and Cotton, W. R.: A One-Dimensional Simulation of the Stratocumulus-Capped Mixed Layer, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 25, 289–321, 1983.
Chou, M. D. and Suarez, M. J.: A solar radiation parameterization for atmospheric studies, NASA Tech. Memo, 104606, 15, 40 pp., 1999.
Cotton, W. R., Pielke Sr., R. A., Walko, R. L., Lista, D. E., Tremback, C. J., Jiang, H., McAnelly, R. L., Harrington, J. Y., Nicholls, M. E., Carrio, G. G., and McFadden, J. P.: RAMS 2001: Current status and future directions, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 82, 5–29, 2003.
Giebel, G., Brownsword, R., Kariniotakis, G., Denhard, M., and Draxl, C.: The State of the Art in Short-Term Prediction of Wind Power, Anemos.plus, deliverable report, 2011.
Gomez, I., Caselles, V., and Estrela, M. J.: Real-time weather forecasting in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An application of the RAMS model, Atmos. Res., 139, 71–84, 2014.
GSE, Rapporto Statistico “Energia da Fonti Rinnovabili in Italia – 2014”, available at: http://www.gse.it/it/salastampa/GSE_Documenti/Rapporto%20statistico%20GSE%20-%202014.pdf (last access: 19 April 2016), 2015.
Janjić, Z. I.: The Step–Mountain Eta Coordinate Model: Further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 927–945, 1994.
Kotroni, V. and Lagouvardos, K.: Evaluation of MM5 High-Resolution Real-Time Forecast over the Urban Area of Athens, Greece, J. Appl. Meteorol., 43, 1666–1678, 2004.
Monteiro, C., Bessa, R., Miranda, V., Botterud, A., Wang, J., and Conzelmann, G.: Wind Power Forecasting: State-of-the-Art 2009, Argonne National Laboratory ANL/DIS-10-1, November 2009.
Pinson, P., Nielsen, H. A., Madsen, H., and Kariniotakis, G.: Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods, J. Phys. Conf. Ser., 75, 012046, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/75/1/012046, 2007.
Pinson, P., Nielsen, H. A., Madsen, H., and Kariniotakis, G.: Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power, Appl. Energ., 86, 1326–1334, 2009.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D., Duda, M. G., Huang, X.-Y., Powers, J. G., and Wang, W.: A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3, NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH, 2008.
Smagorinsky, J.: General circulation experiments with the primitive equations. Part I, The basic experiment, Mon. Weather Rev., 91, 99–164, 1963.
Tiriolo, L., Torcasio, R. C., Montesanti, S., and Federico, S.: Verification of a Real Time Weather Forecasting System in Southern Italy, Adv. Meteorol., 2015, 758250, https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/758250, 2015.
Von Bremen, L.: Combination of deterministic and probabilistic meteorological models to enhance wind farm forecast, J. Phys. Conf. Ser., 75, 012050, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/75/1/012050, 2007.
Short summary
The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the weather prediction community and is of great importance for a better estimation of power production from solar and wind farms.
In this work we analyze the performance of two deterministic models operational at ISAC-CNR for the prediction of short-wave irradiance and wind speed, at two experimental sites in southern Italy.
The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the...
