Short-range solar radiation forecasts over Sweden
Tomas Landelius
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
SMHI, Folkborgsvägen 17, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
Magnus Lindskog
SMHI, Folkborgsvägen 17, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
Heiner Körnich
SMHI, Folkborgsvägen 17, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
Sandra Andersson
SMHI, Folkborgsvägen 17, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
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Knowing the wind speed across the rotor of a wind turbine is key in making good predictions of the power production. However, models struggle to capture both the speed and the shape of the wind profile. Using machine learning methods based on the model data, we show that the predictions can be improved drastically. The work focuses on three coastal sites, spread over the Northern Hemisphere (the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the US Atlantic coast) with similar results for all sites.
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Preprint withdrawn
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Johan Friberg, Bengt G. Martinsson, Sandra M. Andersson, and Oscar S. Sandvik
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During 2006–2015 volcanism contributed 40 % of the stratospheric aerosol load. We compute the AOD (aerosol optical depth) of the stratosphere (from the tropopause to 35 km altitude) using new techniques of handling CALIOP data. Regional and global AODs are presented for the entire stratosphere in relation to transport patterns, and the AOD is presented for three stratospheric layers: the LMS, the potential temperature range of 380 to 470 K, and altitudes above the 470 K isentrope.
Magnus Lindskog, Martin Ridal, Sigurdur Thorsteinsson, and Tong Ning
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Atmospheric moisture-related information obtained from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations from ground-based receiver stations of the Nordic GNSS Analysis Centre (NGAA) has been used within a state-of-the-art kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction system.
The sensitivity of results to aspects of the data processing, observation density, bias-correction and data assimilation has been investigated. Results show a benefit on forecast quality of using GNSS ZTD.
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Short summary
During recent years the strong decrease in the prices of solar panels has lead to an increasing interest in harvesting solar energy. In this paper solar radiation forecasts from a global and a regional numerical weather prediction model are compared. The result is that regional ensemble models can indeed provide added value compared to global models when it comes to forecasting solar radiation available for power production.
During recent years the strong decrease in the prices of solar panels has lead to an increasing...