Climate risk services for cereal farming
Flemish Institute for Technological Research VITO nv, 2400 Mol,
Belgium
Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Faculty of
BioScience Engineering, KU Leuven, 3001 Heverlee, Belgium
Nicoletta Addimando
meteoblue AG, 4058 Basel, Switzerland
Christoph Ramshorn
meteoblue AG, 4058 Basel, Switzerland
Karl Gutbrod
meteoblue AG, 4058 Basel, Switzerland
Related authors
Jonathan Rizzi, Ana M. Tarquis, Anne Gobin, Mikhail Semenov, Wenwu Zhao, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3873–3877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, 2021
Sara Top, Lola Kotova, Lesley De Cruz, Svetlana Aniskevich, Leonid Bobylev, Rozemien De Troch, Natalia Gnatiuk, Anne Gobin, Rafiq Hamdi, Arne Kriegsmann, Armelle Reca Remedio, Abdulla Sakalli, Hans Van De Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Viesturs Zandersons, Philippe De Maeyer, Piet Termonia, and Steven Caluwaerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1267–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1267-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed climate data are needed to assess the impact of climate change on human and natural systems. The performance of two high-resolution regional climate models, ALARO-0 and REMO2015, was investigated over central Asia, a vulnerable region where detailed climate information is scarce. In certain subregions the produced climate data are suitable for impact studies, but bias adjustment is required for subregions where significant biases have been identified.
Le Thi Thu Hien, Anne Gobin, and Pham Thi Thanh Huong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2325–2337, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2325-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Desertification is influenced by different factors that relate to climate, natural resources and human pressure. In southeast Vietnam nearly 15 % of the area is desertified and another 35 % is at severe risk. With climate change and population growth the desertified area is projected to increase by 122 % towards 2050. We developed a framework that allows for decision support in a
what ifstructure, which can be extended to regions that experience similar sensitivities.
T. De Groote, D. Zona, L. S. Broeckx, M. S. Verlinden, S. Luyssaert, V. Bellassen, N. Vuichard, R. Ceulemans, A. Gobin, and I. A. Janssens
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1461–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1461-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the modification of the widely used land surface model ORCHIDEE for stand-scale simulations of short rotation coppice (SRC) plantations. The modifications presented in this paper were evaluated using data from two Belgian poplar-based SRC sites, for which multiple measurements and meteorological data were available. The simulations show that the model predicts aboveground biomass production, ecosystem photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration well.
N. Addimando, M. Engel, F. Schwarz, and M. Batič
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B3-2022, 1301–1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B3-2022-1301-2022, 2022
Jonathan Rizzi, Ana M. Tarquis, Anne Gobin, Mikhail Semenov, Wenwu Zhao, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3873–3877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, 2021
Sara Top, Lola Kotova, Lesley De Cruz, Svetlana Aniskevich, Leonid Bobylev, Rozemien De Troch, Natalia Gnatiuk, Anne Gobin, Rafiq Hamdi, Arne Kriegsmann, Armelle Reca Remedio, Abdulla Sakalli, Hans Van De Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Viesturs Zandersons, Philippe De Maeyer, Piet Termonia, and Steven Caluwaerts
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1267–1293, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1267-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Detailed climate data are needed to assess the impact of climate change on human and natural systems. The performance of two high-resolution regional climate models, ALARO-0 and REMO2015, was investigated over central Asia, a vulnerable region where detailed climate information is scarce. In certain subregions the produced climate data are suitable for impact studies, but bias adjustment is required for subregions where significant biases have been identified.
Le Thi Thu Hien, Anne Gobin, and Pham Thi Thanh Huong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2325–2337, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2325-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2325-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Desertification is influenced by different factors that relate to climate, natural resources and human pressure. In southeast Vietnam nearly 15 % of the area is desertified and another 35 % is at severe risk. With climate change and population growth the desertified area is projected to increase by 122 % towards 2050. We developed a framework that allows for decision support in a
what ifstructure, which can be extended to regions that experience similar sensitivities.
T. De Groote, D. Zona, L. S. Broeckx, M. S. Verlinden, S. Luyssaert, V. Bellassen, N. Vuichard, R. Ceulemans, A. Gobin, and I. A. Janssens
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1461–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1461-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1461-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the modification of the widely used land surface model ORCHIDEE for stand-scale simulations of short rotation coppice (SRC) plantations. The modifications presented in this paper were evaluated using data from two Belgian poplar-based SRC sites, for which multiple measurements and meteorological data were available. The simulations show that the model predicts aboveground biomass production, ecosystem photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration well.
Cited articles
Bindi, M. and Olesen, J.: The responses of agriculture in Europe to climate
change, Reg. Environ. Change, 11, S151–S158, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0173-x, 2011.
Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, C., Carrara, A., and Chevallier, F.:: Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 437, 529–534, 2005.
Drepper, B., Gobin, A., Remy, S., and Van Orshoven, J.: Comparing Apple and
Pear Phenology and Model Performance: What Seven Decades of Observations Reveal, Agronomy, 10, 73, https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10010073, 2020.
Durgun, Y.Ö., Gobin, A., Gilliams, S., Duveiller, G., and Tychon, B.:
Testing the Contribution of Stress Factors to Improve Wheat and Maize Yield
Estimations Derived from Remotely-Sensed Dry Matter Productivity, Remote
Sens., 8, 170, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8030170, 2016.
Durgun, Y.Ö., Gobin, A., Duveiller, G., and Tychon, B.: A study on trade-offs between spatial resolution and temporal sampling density for
wheat yield estimation using both thermal and calendar time, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinform., 86, 101988, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2019.101988, 2020.
Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Soil moisture–atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heatwave, J. Climate, 20, 5081–5099, 2007.
Gobin, A.: Modelling climate impacts on arable yields in Belgium, Clim. Res., 44, 55–68, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00925, 2010.
Gobin, A.: Impact of heat and drought stress on arable crop production in
Belgium, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1911–1922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1911-2012, 2012.
Gobin, A.: Weather related risks in Belgian arable agriculture, Agricult. Syst., 159, 225–236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.06.009, 2018.
Kahiluoto H., Kaseva, J., Balek, J., Olesen, J. E., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Gobin, A., Kersebaum, K. C., Takáč, J., Ruget, F., Ferrise, R., Bezak, P.,
Capellades, G., Dibari, C., Mäkinen, H., Nendel, C., Ventrella, D.,
Rodríguez, A., Bindi, M., and Trnka, M.: Decline in climate resilience
of European wheat, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 123–128, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1804387115, 2019.
Mäkinen, H., Kaseva, J., Trnka, M., Balek, J, Kersebaum, K. C., Nendel, C., Gobin, A., Olesen, J. E., Bindi, M., Ferrise, R., Moriondo, M., Rodríguez, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Takáč, J., Pavol, B., Ventrella, D., Ruget, F., Capellades, G., and Kahiluoto, H.: Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather, Field Crops Res., 222, 209–217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2017.11.008, 2018.
Reidsma, P., Ewert, F., Boogaard, H., and Van Diepen, K.: Regional crop modelling in Europe: The impact of climatic conditions and farm characteristics on maize yields, Agricult. Syst., 100, 51–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2008.12.009, 2009.
RMI: Royal Meteorological Institute, available at:
https://www.meteo.be/nl/info/nieuwsoverzicht,
last access: 11 February 2021.
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C.,
Liniger, M., and Appenzeller, C.: The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heat waves, Nature, 427, 332–336, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02300, 2004.
Termonia, P., Willems, P., Van Lipzig, N., van Ypersele, J.-P., Marbaix, P.,
Fettweis, X., De Ridder, K., Gobin, A., Stavrakou, T., Luyten, P., Pottiaux, E., and Van Schaeybroeck, B.: The CORDEX.be project as a foundation for climate services in Belgium, Clim. Serv., 11, 49–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.05.001, 2018.
Trenberth, K. E., Jones, P. D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu, R., Easterling, D., Klein Tank, A., Parker, D., Rahimzadeh, F., Renwick, J. A., Rusticucci, M., Soden, B., and Zhai, P.: Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change, in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 235–336, 2007.
Trnka, M., Olesen, J. E., Kersebaum, K. C., Rötter, R. P., Brázdil, R., Eitzinger, J., Jansen, S., Skjelvåg, A. O., Peltonen-Sainio, P.,
Hlavinka, P., Balek, J., Eckersten, H., Gobin, A., Vučetić, V.,
Dalla-Marta, A., Alexandrov, V., Semerádová, D.,
Štěpánek, P., Svobodová, E., and Rajdl, K.: Changing regional weather-crop yield relationship across Europe between 1901 and 2012, Clim. Res., 70, 195–214, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01426, 2016.
Vanwindekens, F. M., Gobin, A., Curnel, Y., and Planchon, V.: A new approach
for mapping vulnerability of agroecosystems based on experts' knowledge,
Math. Geosci., 50, 679–696, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-018-9730-5, 2018.
Zamani, S., Gobin, A., Van de Vyver, H., and Gerlo, J.: Atmospheric drought
in Belgium – Statistical analysis of precipitation deficit, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 3056–3071, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4536, 2015.
Short summary
Agricultural production is largely determined by weather conditions during the crop growing season. Weather events such as frosts, droughts or heat stress during crop growth and development helps explain yield variability of common arable crops. We developed a methodology and visualisation tool for risk assessment, and tested the workflow for drought and frost risk. The methodology can be extended to other extreme weather events and their impacts on crop growth in different regions of the world.
Agricultural production is largely determined by weather conditions during the crop growing...