Articles | Volume 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-23-9-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-23-9-2026
05 Aug 2026
 | 05 Aug 2026

Forecaster perspectives on model quality and verification at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Teresa Remes, Morten Køltzow, Andrew Singleton, Lene Østvand, Mette Sundvor Skjerdal, Bjørn Gilje Lillegraven, and Gunnar Noer

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Cited articles

Ainslie, B., So, R., and Chen, J.: Operational Evaluation of a Wildfire Air Quality Model from a Forecaster Point of View, Weather Forecast., 37, 681–698, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0064.1, 2022. a, b
Bouallegue, Z. B., Haiden, T., Weber, N. J., Hamill, T. M., and Richardson, D. S.: Accounting for Representativeness in the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 2049–2062, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0323.1, 2020. a
Bröcker, J., Driscoll, S., Necker, T., Rodríguez, J., Dacre, H., Harvey, N., and Ben Bouallègue, Z.: Verification of AI-based environmental forecasting systems: What can we do, what do we need to do, and what are the challenges?, J. Eur. Meteorol. Soc., 4, 100032, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jemets.2026.100032, 2026. a
Casati, B., Wilson, L. J., Stephenson, D. B., Nurmi, P., Ghelli, A., Pocernich, M., Damrath, U., Ebert, E. E., Brown, B. G., and Mason, S.: Forecast verification: current status and future directions, Meteorol. Appl., 15, 3–18, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.52, 2008. a, b
Casati, B., Loveday, N., Bouallègue, Z. B., Bröcker, J., Wahl, S., de Elía, R., Pic, R., Subich, C., Separovic, L., Brunet, D., and McTaggart-Cowan, R.: Operational Verification of Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., BAMS–D–26–0054.1, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-26-0054.1, 2026. a
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Short summary
Success of weather models depends on how forecasters use and trust them. We held workshops with Norwegian forecasters to understand how they evaluate model quality and use it in their work. Forecasters rely on experience, peer discussions, and past events. They need tools that show model quality in specific situations and help them make decisions during shifts. Their views should guide tool development. This study highlights the value of collaboration between model developers and forecasters.
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