On the predictability of outliers in ensemble forecasts

Siegert, S.; Bröcker, J.; Kantz, H.

doi:10.5194/asr-8-53-2012

Articles | Volume 8, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-8-53-2012

© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-8-53-2012

© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 8, issue 1

28 Mar 2012

| 28 Mar 2012

On the predictability of outliers in ensemble forecasts

S. Siegert, J. Bröcker, and H. Kantz

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Total article views: 2,419 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
1,263	992	164	2,419	254	304

HTML: 1,263
PDF: 992
XML: 164
Total: 2,419
BibTeX: 254
EndNote: 304

Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Feb 2013	6	6	0	12
Mar 2013	2	9	0	11
Apr 2013	4	11	1	16
May 2013	3	10	3	16
Jun 2013	3	6	0	9
Jul 2013	6	7	0	13
Aug 2013	5	5	1	11
Sep 2013	1	6	0	7
Oct 2013	3	6	1	10
Nov 2013	3	7	0	10
Dec 2013	2	9	1	12
Jan 2014	8	10	3	21
Feb 2014	9	12	3	24
Mar 2014	14	30	3	47
Apr 2014	13	18	1	32
May 2014	6	9	0	15
Jun 2014	4	10	1	15
Jul 2014	19	13	5	37
Aug 2014	12	12	6	30
Sep 2014	6	10	0	16
Oct 2014	4	6	0	10
Nov 2014	5	11	1	17
Dec 2014	9	0	9
Jan 2015	1	12	0	13
Feb 2015	9	6	1	16
Mar 2015	7	2	1	10
Apr 2015	12	3	0	15
May 2015	5	2	0	7
Jun 2015	21	2	0	23
Jul 2015	13	1	0	14
Aug 2015	7	7	1	15
Sep 2015	5	4	0	9
Oct 2015	8	5	0	13
Nov 2015	11	2	1	14
Dec 2015	2	3	0	5
Jan 2016	9	6	0	15
Feb 2016	8	11	0	19
Mar 2016	8	2	0	10
Apr 2016	6	2	0	8
May 2016	4	4	0	8
Jun 2016	5	1	1	7
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Aug 2016	4	2	0	6
Sep 2016	4	1	0	5
Oct 2016	3	1	0	4
Nov 2016	3	0	3
Dec 2016	3	1	0	4
Jan 2017	8	4	0	12
Feb 2017	2	1	0	3
Mar 2017	10	2	0	12
Apr 2017	8	1	0	9
May 2017	10	3	2	15
Jun 2017	12	3	15
Jul 2017	4	3	0	7
Aug 2017	2	2	1	5
Sep 2017	3	5	0	8
Oct 2017	2	1	0	3
Nov 2017	3	2	0	5
Dec 2017	4	2	0	6
Jan 2018	5	2	0	7
Feb 2018	10	1	4	15
Mar 2018	8	5	0	13
Apr 2018	3	4	0	7
May 2018	7	3	0	10
Jun 2018	4	7	1	12
Jul 2018	4	6	0	10
Aug 2018	5	5	0	10
Sep 2018	9	7	0	16
Oct 2018	3	6	0	9
Nov 2018	7	6	0	13
Dec 2018	7	8	0	15
Jan 2019	2	4	0	6
Feb 2019	3	4	1	8
Mar 2019	4	4	0	8
Apr 2019	5	10	0	15
May 2019	4	9	0	13
Jun 2019	6	7	0	13
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Aug 2019	4	4	0	8
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Oct 2019	2	4	0	6
Nov 2019	2	9	0	11
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Jan 2020	4	3	1	8
Feb 2020	2	4	0	6
Mar 2020	2	7	0	9
Apr 2020	4	7	1	12
May 2020	5	6	0	11
Jun 2020	23	5	0	28
Jul 2020	43	33	34	110
Aug 2020	7	4	2	13
Sep 2020	6	9	0	15
Oct 2020	6	4	1	11
Nov 2020	3	7	0	10
Dec 2020	11	9	0	20
Jan 2021	6	9	0	15
Feb 2021	3	5	0	8
Mar 2021	5	9	0	14
Apr 2021	5	8	0	13
May 2021	13	4	2	19
Jun 2021	4	10	0	14
Jul 2021	1	3	0	4
Aug 2021	8	4	0	12
Sep 2021	3	8	0	11
Oct 2021	3	15	0	18
Nov 2021	3	20	0	23
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Jan 2022	12	9	0	21
Feb 2022	7	4	1	12
Mar 2022	7	6	0	13
Apr 2022	4	7	0	11
May 2022	4	1	1	6
Jun 2022	3	3	0	6
Jul 2022	3	8	0	11
Aug 2022	1	2	0	3
Sep 2022	3	2	0	5
Oct 2022	8	9	1	18
Nov 2022	4	7	0	11
Dec 2022	5	5	2	12
Jan 2023	3	4	0	7
Feb 2023	5	2	0	7
Mar 2023	6	7	0	13
Apr 2023	2	1	0	3
May 2023	3	4	0	7
Jun 2023	7	3	1	11
Jul 2023	5	2	1	8
Aug 2023	2	3	0	5
Sep 2023	3	0	3
Oct 2023	1	0	1
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Dec 2023	5	1	0	6
Jan 2024	1	0	1
Feb 2024	2	0	2
Mar 2024	3	6	1	10
Apr 2024	3	2	1	6
May 2024	6	8	2	16
Jun 2024	55	2	4	61
Jul 2024	27	5	3	35
Aug 2024	37	4	1	42
Sep 2024	8	3	0	11
Oct 2024	5	2	1	8
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Dec 2024	4	5	0	9
Jan 2025	2	2	2	6
Feb 2025	6	3	0	9
Mar 2025	9	4	1	14
Apr 2025	8	3	0	11
May 2025	10	4	2	16
Jun 2025	19	6	1	26
Jul 2025	11	9	1	21
Aug 2025	19	6	4	29
Sep 2025	14	17	1	32
Oct 2025	22	16	2	40
Nov 2025	19	13	2	34
Dec 2025	30	11	5	46
Jan 2026	29	11	4	44
Feb 2026	18	9	3	30
Mar 2026	13	7	4	24
Apr 2026	25	12	0	37
May 2026	43	6	1	50
Jun 2026	4	4	2	10
Jul 2026	8	7	3	18
Aug 2026	12	6	2	20
Sep 2026	26	35	14	75

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Feb 2013	6	6	0	12
Mar 2013	2	9	0	11
Apr 2013	4	11	1	16
May 2013	3	10	3	16
Jun 2013	3	6	0	9
Jul 2013	6	7	0	13
Aug 2013	5	5	1	11
Sep 2013	1	6	0	7
Oct 2013	3	6	1	10
Nov 2013	3	7	0	10
Dec 2013	2	9	1	12
Jan 2014	8	10	3	21
Feb 2014	9	12	3	24
Mar 2014	14	30	3	47
Apr 2014	13	18	1	32
May 2014	6	9	0	15
Jun 2014	4	10	1	15
Jul 2014	19	13	5	37
Aug 2014	12	12	6	30
Sep 2014	6	10	0	16
Oct 2014	4	6	0	10
Nov 2014	5	11	1	17
Dec 2014	9	0	9
Jan 2015	1	12	0	13
Feb 2015	9	6	1	16
Mar 2015	7	2	1	10
Apr 2015	12	3	0	15
May 2015	5	2	0	7
Jun 2015	21	2	0	23
Jul 2015	13	1	0	14
Aug 2015	7	7	1	15
Sep 2015	5	4	0	9
Oct 2015	8	5	0	13
Nov 2015	11	2	1	14
Dec 2015	2	3	0	5
Jan 2016	9	6	0	15
Feb 2016	8	11	0	19
Mar 2016	8	2	0	10
Apr 2016	6	2	0	8
May 2016	4	4	0	8
Jun 2016	5	1	1	7
Jul 2016	7	1	1	9
Aug 2016	4	2	0	6
Sep 2016	4	1	0	5
Oct 2016	3	1	0	4
Nov 2016	3	0	3
Dec 2016	3	1	0	4
Jan 2017	8	4	0	12
Feb 2017	2	1	0	3
Mar 2017	10	2	0	12
Apr 2017	8	1	0	9
May 2017	10	3	2	15
Jun 2017	12	3	15
Jul 2017	4	3	0	7
Aug 2017	2	2	1	5
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Aug 2018	5	5	0	10
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Oct 2018	3	6	0	9
Nov 2018	7	6	0	13
Dec 2018	7	8	0	15
Jan 2019	2	4	0	6
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May 2019	4	9	0	13
Jun 2019	6	7	0	13
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Aug 2019	4	4	0	8
Sep 2019	2	3	0	5
Oct 2019	2	4	0	6
Nov 2019	2	9	0	11
Dec 2019	3	3	0	6
Jan 2020	4	3	1	8
Feb 2020	2	4	0	6
Mar 2020	2	7	0	9
Apr 2020	4	7	1	12
May 2020	5	6	0	11
Jun 2020	23	5	0	28
Jul 2020	43	33	34	110
Aug 2020	7	4	2	13
Sep 2020	6	9	0	15
Oct 2020	6	4	1	11
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Dec 2020	11	9	0	20
Jan 2021	6	9	0	15
Feb 2021	3	5	0	8
Mar 2021	5	9	0	14
Apr 2021	5	8	0	13
May 2021	13	4	2	19
Jun 2021	4	10	0	14
Jul 2021	1	3	0	4
Aug 2021	8	4	0	12
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Apr 2022	4	7	0	11
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Jun 2022	3	3	0	6
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Aug 2022	1	2	0	3
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Nov 2022	4	7	0	11
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Jan 2023	3	4	0	7
Feb 2023	5	2	0	7
Mar 2023	6	7	0	13
Apr 2023	2	1	0	3
May 2023	3	4	0	7
Jun 2023	7	3	1	11
Jul 2023	5	2	1	8
Aug 2023	2	3	0	5
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Oct 2023	1	0	1
Nov 2023	5	0	5
Dec 2023	5	1	0	6
Jan 2024	1	0	1
Feb 2024	2	0	2
Mar 2024	3	6	1	10
Apr 2024	3	2	1	6
May 2024	6	8	2	16
Jun 2024	55	2	4	61
Jul 2024	27	5	3	35
Aug 2024	37	4	1	42
Sep 2024	8	3	0	11
Oct 2024	5	2	1	8
Nov 2024	6	1	1	8
Dec 2024	4	5	0	9
Jan 2025	2	2	2	6
Feb 2025	6	3	0	9
Mar 2025	9	4	1	14
Apr 2025	8	3	0	11
May 2025	10	4	2	16
Jun 2025	19	6	1	26
Jul 2025	11	9	1	21
Aug 2025	19	6	4	29
Sep 2025	14	17	1	32
Oct 2025	22	16	2	40
Nov 2025	19	13	2	34
Dec 2025	30	11	5	46
Jan 2026	29	11	4	44
Feb 2026	18	9	3	30
Mar 2026	13	7	4	24
Apr 2026	25	12	0	37
May 2026	43	6	1	50
Jun 2026	4	4	2	10
Jul 2026	8	7	3	18
Aug 2026	12	6	2	20
Sep 2026	26	35	14	75

Latest update: 29 Sep 2026