05 May 2017
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave
Constantin Ardilouze
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
Lauriane Batté
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
Michel Déqué
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France
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Short summary
Was the July 2015 heat wave that struck Western Europe predictable more than 10 days ahead and to what extent? This article addresses the question by assessing forecasts from the CNRM-CM sub-seasonal forecast system. It is found that a warm anomaly was anticipated up to one month ahead despite the limited skill of the forecast system at such lead-time. The possible causes for this relative success are then discussed.
Was the July 2015 heat wave that struck Western Europe predictable more than 10 days ahead and...
