Comparison between 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation methods for the simulation of a heavy rainfall case in central Italy
Vincenzo Mazzarella
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Science and Technology, University of Naples
“Parthenope”, Naples, Italy
Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, Department of Physical and Chemical
Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Ida Maiello
Department of Information Engineering, Electronics and
Telecommunications, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, Department of Physical and Chemical
Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Vincenzo Capozzi
Department of Science and Technology, University of Naples
“Parthenope”, Naples, Italy
Giorgio Budillon
Department of Science and Technology, University of Naples
“Parthenope”, Naples, Italy
Rossella Ferretti
Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, Department of Physical and Chemical
Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
Related authors
Vincenzo Mazzarella, Rossella Ferretti, Errico Picciotti, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2849–2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting precipitation over the Mediterranean basin is still a challenge. In this context, data assimilation techniques play a key role in improving the initial conditions and consequently the timing and position of the precipitation forecast. For the first time, the ability of a cycling 4D-Var to reproduce a heavy rain event in central Italy, as well as to provide a comparison with the largely used cycling 3D-Var, is evaluated in this study.
Rossella Ferretti, Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Valentina Colaiuda, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Ida Maiello, Marco Verdecchia, and Gianluca Redaelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3135–3156, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Floods and severe rainfall are among the major natural hazards in the Mediterranean basin. Though precipitation weather forecasts have improved considerably, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can deteriorate the hydrological forecast. To improve hydrological forecasting, a regional-scale meteorological–hydrological ensemble is presented. This allows for predicting potential severe events days in advance and for characterizing the uncertainty of the hydrological forecast.
Vincenzo Capozzi, Errico Picciotti, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Giorgio Budillon, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-177, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This work explores the potentialities in urban hailstorms detection of X-band miniradar measurements. The results show that the latter are suitable for early monitoring of hail events at urban scale, especially when combined with conventional meteorological data. The experimental hail detection product developed in this study, although trained for a specific urban environment (i.e. Naples urban area), can be easily adapted to other areas where detailed meteorological information is needed.
Giuseppe Aulicino, Antonino Ian Ferola, Laura Fortunato, Giorgio Budillon, Pasquale Castagno, Pierpaolo Falco, Giannetta Fusco, Naomi Krauzig, Giancarlo Spezie, Enrico Zambianchi, and Yuri Cotroneo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-417, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-417, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
This study gathered water temperature data in the last 30 years from several research cruises using XBT probes between New Zealand and the Ross Sea (Antarctica). These observations, collected in the framework of Italian National Antarctic Research Program, were rigorously checked for accuracy and corrected for depth and temperature bias. The public dataset offers valuable information to get insights into the Southern Ocean's climate and improve satellite observations and oceanographic models.
Vincenzo Capozzi, Francesco Serrapica, Armando Rocco, Clizia Annella, and Giorgio Budillon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1056, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1056, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study offers a “journey through time” to discover historical information about snow precipitation in the Italian Apennines. In this area, in the second half of past century, a gradual decline in snow persistence on the ground as well as in the frequency of occurrence of snowfall events has been observed, especially in sites located above 1000 m a.s.l.. The old data rescued in this study strongly enhances our knowledge about past snowfall variability and climate in the Mediterranean area.
Elisa Adirosi, Federico Porcù, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Alessandro Bracci, Vincenzo Capozzi, Clizia Annella, Giorgio Budillon, Edoardo Bucchignani, Alessandra Lucia Zollo, Orietta Cazzuli, Giulio Camisani, Renzo Bechini, Roberto Cremonini, Andrea Antonini, Alberto Ortolani, Samantha Melani, Paolo Valisa, and Simone Scapin
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2417–2429, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2417-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2417-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes the database of 1 min drop size distribution (DSD) of atmospheric precipitation collected by the Italian disdrometer network over the last 10 years. These data are useful for several applications that range from climatological, meteorological and hydrological uses to telecommunications, agriculture and conservation of cultural heritage exposed to precipitation. Descriptions of the processing and of the database organization, along with some examples, are provided.
Vincenzo Capozzi, Carmela De Vivo, and Giorgio Budillon
The Cryosphere, 16, 1741–1763, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1741-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1741-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the snowfall variability observed from late XIX century to recent years in Montevergine (southern Italy) and discusses its relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main results lie in the absence of a trend until mid-1970s, in the strong reduction of the snowfall quantity and frequency from mid-1970s to 1990s and in the increase of both variables from early 2000s. In the past 50 years, the nivometric regime has been strongly modulated by AO and NAO indices.
Gaia Mattei, Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Anfuso, Giorgio Budillon, and Pietro Aucelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3809–3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3809-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3809-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the characteristics of a destructive marine storm in the strongly inhabited coastal area of the Gulf of Naples, along the Italian coast of the Tyrrhenian Sea, which is highly vulnerable to marine storms due to the accelerated relative sea level rise trend and the increased anthropogenic impact on the coastal area. Finally, a first assessment of the return period of this event was evaluated using local press reports on damage to urban furniture and port infrastructures.
Vincenzo Mazzarella, Rossella Ferretti, Errico Picciotti, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2849–2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting precipitation over the Mediterranean basin is still a challenge. In this context, data assimilation techniques play a key role in improving the initial conditions and consequently the timing and position of the precipitation forecast. For the first time, the ability of a cycling 4D-Var to reproduce a heavy rain event in central Italy, as well as to provide a comparison with the largely used cycling 3D-Var, is evaluated in this study.
Vincenzo Capozzi, Yuri Cotroneo, Pasquale Castagno, Carmela De Vivo, and Giorgio Budillon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1467–1487, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1467-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the entire rescue process, from digitization to quality control, of a new historical dataset that includes sub-daily meteorological observations collected in Montevergine (southern Italy) since the late 19th century. These data enhance and supplement sub-daily datasets currently available in Mediterranean regions. Moreover, they offer a unique opportunity to investigate meteorological and climatological features of the mountainous environment prior to the 1950s.
Rossella Ferretti, Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Valentina Colaiuda, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Ida Maiello, Marco Verdecchia, and Gianluca Redaelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3135–3156, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3135-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3135-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Floods and severe rainfall are among the major natural hazards in the Mediterranean basin. Though precipitation weather forecasts have improved considerably, precipitation estimation is still affected by errors that can deteriorate the hydrological forecast. To improve hydrological forecasting, a regional-scale meteorological–hydrological ensemble is presented. This allows for predicting potential severe events days in advance and for characterizing the uncertainty of the hydrological forecast.
Yuri Cotroneo, Giuseppe Aulicino, Simon Ruiz, Antonio Sánchez Román, Marc Torner Tomàs, Ananda Pascual, Giannetta Fusco, Emma Heslop, Joaquín Tintoré, and Giorgio Budillon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 147–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-147-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-147-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present data collected from the first three glider surveys in the Algerian Basin conducted during the ABACUS project. After collection, data passed a quality control procedure and were then made available through an unrestricted repository. The main objective of our project is monitoring the basin circulation of the Mediterranean Sea. Temperature and salinity data collected in the first 975 m of the water column allowed us to identify the main water masses and describe their characteristics.
Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Budillon, Luigi Mucerino, Raffaele Montella, and Eugenio Pugliese Carratelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2841–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2841-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2841-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting and hindcasting the action of sea storms on piers, coastal structures and beaches is important to mitigate their effects. To this end, with particular regard to low coasts and beaches, we have configured a computational model chain based partly on open-access models and partly on an ad-hoc-developed numerical calculator to evaluate beach wave run-up levels. The results were validated by a set of specially conceived video-camera-based experiments on a micro-tidal beach.
Ida Maiello, Sabrina Gentile, Rossella Ferretti, Luca Baldini, Nicoletta Roberto, Errico Picciotti, Pier Paolo Alberoni, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5459–5476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5459-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5459-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper the impact of multiple radar reflectivity data assimilation on a flash flood event occurred during SOP1 of the HyMeX campaign has been evaluated: the aim is to build a regionally tuned numerical prediction model and decision-support system for environmental civil protection services within the central Italian regions. The results are encouraging, but a significant number of flash flood cases and a deeper analysis of the meteorology of the region are necessary.
Guido Benassai, Pietro Aucelli, Giorgio Budillon, Massimo De Stefano, Diana Di Luccio, Gianluigi Di Paola, Raffaele Montella, Luigi Mucerino, Mario Sica, and Micla Pennetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1493–1503, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1493-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1493-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The study of the shallow coastal area of the Sele mouth in the Gulf of Salerno (southern Italy) identified the features of nearshore circulation,
which often produced rip currents. The occurrence of a rip current cell circulation in restricted ranges of heights, periods and incident directions was
related to the non-dimensional fall velocity parameter, which proved to be an efficient index for rip current formation.
Vincenzo Capozzi and Giorgio Budillon
Adv. Geosci., 44, 35–51, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-44-35-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-44-35-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The extreme temperature events, the heat and cold waves, besides to have a significant impact on human health and activities, have negative influences also on mountain ecosystems. This work provides a characterization of heat and cold waves variability and trends in high-elevation sites of Central Mediterranean area, by using the long-term temperature time series collected in Montevergine. Main results highlight a positive trend in heat waves frequency and severity in the last 40 years.
Vincenzo Capozzi, Errico Picciotti, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Giorgio Budillon, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-177, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This work explores the potentialities in urban hailstorms detection of X-band miniradar measurements. The results show that the latter are suitable for early monitoring of hail events at urban scale, especially when combined with conventional meteorological data. The experimental hail detection product developed in this study, although trained for a specific urban environment (i.e. Naples urban area), can be easily adapted to other areas where detailed meteorological information is needed.
S. Gentile and R. Ferretti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 431–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-431-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-431-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Twelve Hector events, a storm which develops in northern Australia, are analyzed with the aim of identifying the main meteorological parameters involved in the convective development. The analysis suggests that the strength of convection, defined in terms of vertical velocity, largely contributes to the vertical distribution of hydrometeors.
I. Maiello, R. Ferretti, S. Gentile, M. Montopoli, E. Picciotti, F. S. Marzano, and C. Faccani
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2919–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2919-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2919-2014, 2014
R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda, and R. Rotunno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1953–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, 2014
E. Pichelli, R. Ferretti, M. Cacciani, A. M. Siani, V. Ciardini, and T. Di Iorio
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 315–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-315-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-315-2014, 2014
Cited articles
Barker, D. M., Huang, W., Guo, Y.-R., Bourgeois, A., and Xiao, Q.: A Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system for use with MM5: Implementation and initial results, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 897–914, 2004.
Brown, B. G., Gotway, J. H., Bullock, R., Gilleland, E., Fowler, T., Ahijevych, D., and Jensen, T.: The Model Evaluation Tools (MET): Community tools for forecast evaluation, in: Preprints, 25th Conf. on International Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc. A, 9, 6, 2009.
Chu, K., Xiao, Q., and Liu, C.: Experiments of the WRF three-/four-dimensional variational (3/4DVAR) data assimilation in the forecasting of Antarctic cyclones, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 120, 145–156, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-013-0243-y, 2013.
Davis, C., Brown, B., and Bullock, R.: Object-based verification of precipitation forecasts. Part I: methodology and application to mesoscale rain areas, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 1772–1784, 2006.
Ducrocq, V., Braud, I., Davolio, S., Ferretti, R., Flamant, C., Jansa, A., Kalthoff, N., Richard, E., Taupier-Letage, I., Ayral, P., Belamari, S., Berne, A., Borga, M., Boudevillain B., Bock, O., Boichard, J., Bouin, M., Bousquet, O., Bouvier, C., Chiggiato, J., Cimini, D., Corsmeier, U., Coppola, L., Cocquerez, P., Defer, E., Delanoë, J., Di Girolamo, P., Doerenbecher, A., Drobinski, P., Dufournet, Y., Fourrié, N., Gourley, J., Labatut, L., Lambert, D., Le Coz, J., Marzano, F. S., Molinié, G., Montani, A., Nord, G., Nuret, M., Ramage, K., Rison, W., Roussot, O., Said, F., Schwarzenboeck, A., Testor, P., Van Baelen, J., Vincendon, B., Aran, M., and Tamayo, J.: HyMeX-SOP1: The field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the Northwestern Mediterranean, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1083–1100, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00244.1, 2014.
Errico, R. M.: What is an adjoint method?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2577–2591, 1997.
Errico, R. M. and Reader K. D.: An examination of the accuracy of the linearization of a mesoscale model with moist physics, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 169–195, 1999.
Errico, R. M., Vukicevic, T., and Reader, K.: Examination of the accuracy of a tangent linear model, Tellus, 45A, 462–477, 1993.
Ferretti, R., Pichelli, E., Gentile, S., Maiello, I., Cimini, D., Davolio, S., Miglietta, M. M., Panegrossi, G., Baldini, L., Pasi, F., Marzano, F. S., Zinzi, A., Mariani, S., Casaioli, M., Bartolini, G., Loglisci, N., Montani, A., Marsigli, C., Manzato, A., Pucillo, A., Ferrario, M. E., Colaiuda, V., and Rotunno, R.: Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1953–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, 2014.
Fulton, R. A., Breidenbach, J. P., Seo, D., Miller, D., and O'Bannon, T.: The WSR-88D rainfall algorithm, Weather Forecast., 13, 377–395, 1998.
Hu, M., Xue, M., and Brewster, K.: 3DVAR and cloud analysis with WSR-88D level-II data for the prediction of the Fort Worth, Texas, tornadic thunderstorms. Part I: Cloud analysis and its impact, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 675–698, 2006.
Huang, X. Y., Xiao, Q., Barker, D. M., Zhang, X., Michalakes, J., Huang, W., Henderson, T., Bray, J., Chen, Y., Ma, Z., Dudhia, J., Guo, Y., Zhang, X., Won, D. J., Lin H. C., and Kuo Y. H.: Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for WRF: formulation and preliminary results, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 299–314, 2009.
Janjić, Z. I.: Non singular implementation of the Mellor–Yamada level 2.5 scheme in the NCEP Meso model, NCEP office note, 437, 61, 2002.
Kain, J. S.: The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update, J. Appl. Meteorol. 43, 170–181, 2004.
Liu, J., Bray, M., and Han, D.: Exploring the effect of data assimilation by WRF-3DVar for numerical rainfall prediction with different types of storm events, Hydrol. Process., 27, 3627–3640, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9488, 2013.
Maiello, I., Ferretti, R., Gentile, S., Montopoli, M., Picciotti, E., Marzano, F. S., and Faccani, C.: Impact of radar data assimilation for the simulation of a heavy rainfall case in central Italy using WRF-3DVAR, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 2919–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-2919-2014, 2014.
Mellor, G. L. and Yamada, T.: Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems, Rev. Geophys., 20, 851–875, 1982.
Picciotti, E., Montopoli, M., Gallese, B., Cimoroni, A., Ferrauto, G., Ronzitti, L., Mancini, G., Volpi, A., Sabatini, F., Bernardini, L., and Marzano, F. S.: Rainfall mapping in complex orography from C-band RADAR at Mt. Midia in Central Italy: data synergy and adaptive algorithms, Proceeding of ERAD 2006, Barcelona, Spain, 341–344, 2006.
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D. O., Barker, D. M., Duda, M. G., Huang, X. Y., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3, NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-475+STR, 2008.
Sun, J. and Crook N. A.: Dynamical and microphysical retrieval from Doppler radar observations using a cloud model and its adjoint. Part I: Model development and simulated data experiments. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 1642–1661, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<1642:DAMRFD>2.0.CO;2, 1997.
Sun, J. and Wang, H.: Radar data assimilation with WRF 4DVar. Part II: comparison with 3D-Var for a squall line over the US Great Plains, Mon. Weather Rev., 11, 2245–2264, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00169.1, 2013.
Sun, J., Xue, M., Wilson, J. W., Zawadzki, I., Ballard, S. P., Onvlee-Hooimeyer, J., Joe, P., Barker, D. M., Li, P-W., Golding, B., Xu, M., and Pinto, J.: Use of NWP for nowcasting convective precipitation, Recent Progress and Challenges, BAMS, 95, 409–426, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00263.1, 2014.
Thompson, G., Field, P. R., Rasmussen, R. M., and Hall, W. D.: Explicit forecast of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Implementation of a new snow parameterization, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 5095–5115, 2008.
Wang, H., Sun, J., Zhang, X., Huang, X., and Auligne, T.: Radar data assimilation with WRF 4D-Var. Part I: system development and preliminary testing, Mon. Weather Rev., 141, 2224–2244, 2013.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd Edn., Academic Press, 2006.
Xiao, Q., Kuo, Y.-H., Sun, J., and Lee, W.-C.: Assimilation of Doppler RADAR Observations with a Regional 3DVAR System: Impact of Doppler Velocities on Forecasts of a Heavy Rainfall Case, J. Appl. Meteor., 44, 768–788, 2005.
Short summary
This work aims to provide a comparison between three dimensional and four dimensional variational data assimilation methods (3D-Var and 4D-Var) for a heavy rainfall case in central Italy. Nine simulations are compared in terms of rainfall forecast and precipitation measured by the gauges through three statistical indicators. The assimilation of conventional observations with 4D-Var method improves the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) compared to 3D-Var.
This work aims to provide a comparison between three dimensional and four dimensional...