CNR-ISAC 2 m temperature monthly forecasts: a first probabilistic evaluation

Abstract. The 2 m temperature probabilistic forecasts collected, on a weekly basis, in about one year of CNR-ISAC monthly forecasting activity are evaluated in this work. RPSS and reliability diagrams are computed on a tercile classification of forecast and observed temperatures. The RPSS, averaged over all the available cases, shows that the system has a residual predictive skill beyond week 2 on some peculiar regions. Reliability diagrams show that, in general, the probability forecasts of above-normal observed temperature are more reliable than below-normal temperature. Although the results are based on a limited period, they can represent a reference for similar works based on other subseasonal forecasting systems.