Advances in Science and Research
Advances in Science and Research
ASR
Articles | Volume 14
Articles | Volume 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-85-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-85-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14
18 Apr 2017
 | 18 Apr 2017

CNR-ISAC 2 m temperature monthly forecasts: a first probabilistic evaluation

Daniele Mastrangelo and Piero Malguzzi

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Latest update: 15 Jun 2026
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Short summary
The probabilistic evaluation of 2 m temperature forecast of about one year of monthly ensemble forecasts, issued on a monthly basis, is provided. The ranked probability skill score, averaged over all the available cases, shows that the system has a residual predictive skill beyond week 2 on some peculiar regions. Reliability diagrams show that, in general, the probability forecasts of above-normal observed temperature are more reliable than below-normal temperature.
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