CNR-ISAC 2 m temperature monthly forecasts: a first probabilistic evaluation
Daniele Mastrangelo
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), Bologna, 40129, Italy
Piero Malguzzi
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), Bologna, 40129, Italy
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Short summary
The probabilistic evaluation of 2 m temperature forecast of about one year of monthly ensemble forecasts, issued on a monthly basis, is provided. The ranked probability skill score, averaged over all the available cases, shows that the system has a residual predictive skill beyond week 2 on some peculiar regions. Reliability diagrams show that, in general, the probability forecasts of above-normal observed temperature are more reliable than below-normal temperature.
The probabilistic evaluation of 2 m temperature forecast of about one year of monthly ensemble...