Ensemble using different Planetary Boundary Layer schemes in WRF model for wind speed and direction prediction over Apulia region
Andrea Tateo
Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica, Università deli Studi di Bari “A. Moro”, Via G. Amendola 173, 70126, Bari, Italy
Apulia Region Environmental Protection Agency (ARPA Puglia), C.so Trieste 27, 70126, Bari, Itali
Mario Marcello Miglietta
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Lecce, Italy
Francesca Fedele
Apulia Region Environmental Protection Agency (ARPA Puglia), C.so Trieste 27, 70126, Bari, Itali
Micaela Menegotto
Apulia Region Environmental Protection Agency (ARPA Puglia), C.so Trieste 27, 70126, Bari, Itali
Alfonso Monaco
Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Sezione di Bari, Via Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, Italy
Roberto Bellotti
Dipartimento Interateneo di Fisica, Università deli Studi di Bari “A. Moro”, Via G. Amendola 173, 70126, Bari, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), Sezione di Bari, Via Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Elenio Avolio, Carlos Calvo-Sancho, Diego Saul Carrió, Stavros Dafis, Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Suzanne Gray, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Platon Patlakas, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Didier Ricard, Antonio Ricchi, Claudio Sanchez, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187–1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This is a collective effort to describe the state of the art in Mediterranean cyclone dynamics, climatology, prediction (weather and climate scales) and impacts. More than that, the paper focuses on the future directions of research that would advance the broader field of Mediterranean cyclones as a whole. Thereby, we propose interdisciplinary cooperation and additional modelling and forecasting strategies, and we highlight the need for new impact-oriented approaches to climate prediction.
Mario Marcello Miglietta and Silvio Davolio
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 627–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The main results emerging from the HyMeX SOP1 campaign and in the subsequent research activity in three Italian target areas are highlighted through conceptual models and through the identification of the relevant mesoscale environmental characteristics conducive to heavy rain events.
Enzo Papandrea, Stefano Casadio, Elisa Castelli, Bianca Maria Dinelli, and Mario Marcello Miglietta
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 6683–6693, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-6683-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-6683-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lee waves have been detected in clear-sky conditions over the Mediterranean Sea using the total column water vapour (TCWV) fields. The products were generated applying the Advanced Infra-Red WAter Vapour Estimator (AIRWAVE) retrieval algorithm to the thermal infrared measurements of the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) instrument series. A subset of the occurrences has been compared with both independent observations and model simulations.
Umberto Rizza, Francesca Barnaba, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Cristina Mangia, Luca Di Liberto, Davide Dionisi, Francesca Costabile, Fabio Grasso, and Gian Paolo Gobbi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 93–115, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-93-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-93-2017, 2017
A. Karelin, O. Adriani, G. Barbarino, G. Bazilevskaya, R. Bellotti, M. Boezio, E. Bogomolov, M. Bongi, V. Bonvicini, S. Bottai, A. Bruno, F. Cafagna, D. Campana, R. Carbone, P. Carlson, M. Casolino, G. Castellini, C. De Donato, C. De Santis, N. De Simone, V. Di Felice, V. Formato, A. Galper, S. Koldashov, S. Koldobskiy, S. Krut'kov, A. Kvashnin, A. Leonov, V. Malakhov, L. Marcelli, M. Martucci, A. Mayorov, W. Menn, M. Mergé, V. Mikhailov, E. Mocchiutti, A. Monaco, N. Mori, R. Munini, G. Osteria, F. Palma, B. Panico, P. Papini, M. Pearce, P. Picozza, M. Ricci, S. Ricciarini, R. Sarkar, M. Simon, V. Scotti, R. Sparvoli, P. Spillantini, Y. Stozhkov, A. Vacchi, E. Vannuccini, G. Vasilyev, S. Voronov, Y. Yurkin, G. Zampa, and N. Zampa
ASTRA Proc., 2, 35–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/ap-2-35-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/ap-2-35-2015, 2015
B. Panico, O. Adriani, G. C. Barbarino, G. A. Bazilevskaya, R. Bellotti, M. Boezio, E. A. Bogomolov, M. Bongi, V. Bonvicini, S. Bottai, A. Bruno, F. Cafagna, D. Campana, P. Carlson, M. Casolino, G. Castellini, C. De Donato, C. De Santis, N. De Simone, V. Di Felice, V. Formato, A. M. Galper, U. Giaccari, A. V. Karelin, S. V. Koldashov, S. Koldobskiy, S. Y. Krutkov, A. N. Kvashnin, A. Leonov, V. Malakhov, L. Marcelli, M. Martucci, A. G. Mayorov, W. Menn, M. Mergé, V. V. Mikhailov, E. Mocchiutti, A. Monaco, N. Mori, R. Munini, G. Osteria, F. Palma, M. Pearce, P. Picozza, M. Ricci, S. B. Ricciarini, R. Sarkar, V. Scotti, M. Simon, R. Sparvoli, P. Spillantini, Y. I. Stozhkov, A. Vacchi, E. Vannuccini, G. I. Vasilyev, S. A. Voronov, Y. T. Yurkin, G. Zampa, and N. Zampa
ASTRA Proc., 2, 17–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/ap-2-17-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/ap-2-17-2015, 2015
R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda, and R. Rotunno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1953–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, 2014
F. De Biasio, M. M. Miglietta, S. Zecchetto, and A. della Valle
Adv. Sci. Res., 11, 41–48, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-11-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-11-41-2014, 2014
I. M. Mazzitelli, M. Cassol, M. M. Miglietta, U. Rizza, A. M. Sempreviva, and A. S. Lanotte
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 489–501, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-489-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-489-2014, 2014
S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, and A. Montani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2107–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2107-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2107-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Amodio, M., Andriani, E., de Gennaro, G., Di Gilio, A., Ielpo, P., Placentino, C. M., and Tutino, M.: How a Steel Plant Affects Air Quality of a Nearby Urban Area: A Study on Metals and PAH concentrations, Aerosol Air Qual. Res., 13, 497–508, 2013.
Comin, A. N., Miglietta, M. M., Rizza, U., Acevedo, O. C., and Degrazia, G. A.: Investigation of a sea-breeze convergence in a Mediterranean peninsula, Atmos. Res., 160, 68–79, 2015.
De Tomasi, F., Miglietta, M. M., and Perrone, M. R.: The growth of the PBL in a coastal site: a case study, Boundary Layer Meteorology, 139, 521–541, 2011.
Evans, J. P., Ekström, M., and Ji, F.: Evaluating the performance of a WRF physics ensemble over South-East Australia, Clim. Dynam., 39, 1241–1258, 2012.
Evensen, G.: The ensemble Kalman filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation, Ocean Dynam., 53, 343–367, 2003.
Fedele, F., Menegotto, M., Trizio, L., Angiuli, L., Guarnieri Calò Carducci, A., Bellotti, R., Giua, R., and Assennato, G.: Meteorological effects on pm10 concentrations in an urban industrial site: a statistical analysis, in: Conference Proceedings – 1st International Conference on Atmospheric DUST, 162–167, https://doi.org/10.14644/dust.2014.026, ISSN: 2283-5954, 2014.
Fedele, F., Miglietta, M. M., Perrone, M. R., Burlizzi, P., Bellotti, R., Conte, D., and Guarnieri Calò Carducci, A.: Numerical simulations with the WRF model of water vapour vertical profiles: A comparison with LIDAR and radiosounding measurements, Atmos. Res., 166, 110–119, 2015.
Gardner, M. W. and Dorling, S. R.: Artificial neural networks (the multilayer perceptron) – a review of applications in the atmospheric sciences, Atmos. Environ., 32, 2627–2636, 1998.
Jiménez, P. A. and Dudhia, J.: Improving the representation of resolved and unresolved topographic effects on surface wind in the WRF model, J. Appl. Meteor. Clim., 51, 300–316, 2012.
Tateo, A., Bellotti, R., Fedele, F., Guarnieri Calò Carducci, A., and Pollice, A.: Post-processing of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model by Artificial Neural Networks, GRASPA-SIS Biennial Conference, Bari, ISBN 978-88-88793-77-1, 2015.
Trizio, L., Angiuli, L., Menegotto, M., Fedele, F., Giua, R., Mazzone, F., and Assennato, G.: Effect of the Apulia air quality plan on PM10 and benzo (a) pyrene exceedances, Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 2, 95–104, 2016.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Volume 91, Second Edition (International Geophysics), 2nd Edition, Academic Press, 2005.
Wolpert, D.: Stacked Generalization, Neural Networks, 5, 241–259, 1992.