23 Aug 2018
| 23 Aug 2018
Creating a proof-of-concept climate service to assess future renewable energy mixes in Europe: An overview of the C3S ECEM project
Alberto Troccoli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
UEA, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, UK
World Energy & Meteorology Council, Norwich, UK
Clare Goodess
UEA, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, UK
Phil Jones
UEA, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, UK
Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of
Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Lesley Penny
UEA, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, UK
Steve Dorling
UEA, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, UK
World Energy & Meteorology Council, Norwich, UK
Colin Harpham
UEA, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, UK
Laurent Dubus
EDF R&D, Paris, France
Sylvie Parey
EDF R&D, Paris, France
Sandra Claudel
EDF R&D, Paris, France
Duc-Huy Khong
EDF R&D, Paris, France
Philip E. Bett
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Hazel Thornton
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Thierry Ranchin
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. – Centre for
Observation, Impacts, Energy, Antipolis, France
Lucien Wald
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. – Centre for
Observation, Impacts, Energy, Antipolis, France
Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, O.I.E. – Centre for
Observation, Impacts, Energy, Antipolis, France
Matteo De Felice
ENEA, Bologna, Italy
David Brayshaw
University of Reading, Reading, UK
Emma Suckling
University of Reading, Reading, UK
Barbara Percy
Institute for Environmental Analytics, Reading, UK
Jon Blower
University of Reading, Reading, UK
Institute for Environmental Analytics, Reading, UK
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Marc Bengulescu, Philippe Blanc, and Lucien Wald
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Claire Thomas, Etienne Wey, Philippe Blanc, and Lucien Wald
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The new CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) McClear service is a practical easy-to-use tool to estimate the solar direct and global irradiances received at ground level in cloud-free conditions at any place any time. This article presents validation against 1 min measurements made at three very close stations in Israel in desert conditions. The good results demonstrate the accuracy of McClear and its ability to capture the temporal and spatial variability of the irradiance field.
Mohamed Korany, Mohamed Boraiy, Yehia Eissa, Youva Aoun, Magdy M. Abdel Wahab, Stéphane C. Alfaro, Philippe Blanc, Mossad El-Metwally, Hosni Ghedira, Katja Hungershoefer, and Lucien Wald
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 105–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-105-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-105-2016, 2016
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A database of global and diffuse components of the surface solar hourly irradiation measured from 2004 to 2010 at eight Egyptian meteorological stations is presented. At three sites, the direct component is also available. In addition, a series of meteorological variables is provided at the same hourly resolution. The measurements and quality checks applied to the data are detailed. Finally, 13500 to 29000 measurements of global and diffuse hourly irradiation are available at each site.
P. Blanc and L. Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-1-2016, 2016
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Time series of hourly measurements or modelled values of surface solar irradiation are increasingly available. Currently, no solar zenith and azimuth angles are associated to each measurement whereas such angles are necessary for handling the measured or modelled irradiations. A method is proposed to assess such angles with a great accuracy. It makes use of two modelled time-series that can be computed using the web site www.soda-pro.com for any site in the world.
J. M. Eden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, E. Hawkins, and E. B. Suckling
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015, 2015
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Our paper reports on a simple regression-based system for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal climate. We discuss the physical motivation behind the statistical relationships underpinning our empirical model and provide a validation of hindcasts produced for the last half century. The generation of probabilistic forecasts on a global scale along with the use of the long-term trend as a source of skill constitutes a novel approach to empirical forecasting of seasonal climate.
Y. Eissa, P. Blanc, L. Wald, and H. Ghedira
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 5099–5112, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-5099-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-5099-2015, 2015
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This study investigates whether the spectral aerosol optical properties of the AERONET stations are sufficient for an accurate modelling of the monochromatic beam and circumsolar irradiances under cloud-free conditions in a desert environment. By comparing the modelled irradiances against reference ground measurements, the monochromatic beam and circumsolar irradiances may very well be modelled using a set of inputs extracted from the AERONET data.
W. Wandji Nyamsi, A. Arola, P. Blanc, A. V. Lindfors, V. Cesnulyte, M. R. A. Pitkänen, and L. Wald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7449–7456, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7449-2015, 2015
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A novel model of the absorption of radiation by ozone in the UV bands [283, 307]nm and [307, 328]nm yields improvements in the modeling of the transmissivity in these bands. This model is faster than detailed spectral calculations and is as accurate with maximum errors of respectively 0.0006 and 0.0143. How to practically implement this new parameterization in a radiative transfer model is discussed for the case of libRadtran.
W. Wandji Nyamsi, B. Espinar, P. Blanc, and L. Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 5–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-5-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-5-2015, 2015
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We propose an innovative method to estimate the Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) under clear sky conditions derived from the fast approach of Kato et al. (1999). It provides very good results better than the two state-of-the-art empirical methods computing the daily mean of PAR from the daily mean of total irradiance. In addition, this technique may be extended to be able to accurately estimate other spectral quantities taking into account absorption of plants photosynthetic pigments.
P. Blanc, C. Coulaud, and L. Wald
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-1-2015, 2015
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New Caledonia experiences a decrease in surface solar irradiation since 2004, of order of 4% of the mean yearly irradiation, and amounts to 9 W m 2. The preeminent roles of the changes in cloud cover and to a lesser extent, those in aerosol optical depth on the decrease in yearly irradiation are evidenced. The study highlights the role of data sets offering a worldwide coverage in understanding changes in solar radiation and planning large solar energy plants.
Z. Qu, B. Gschwind, M. Lefevre, and L. Wald
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3927–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3927-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3927-2014, 2014
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The HelioClim-3 database (HC3v3) provides records of surface solar irradiation every 15 min estimated by processing images from the geostationary meteorological Meteosat satellites using climatological data sets of atmospheric properties. A method is proposed to improve a posteriori HC3v3 by combining it with data records of advanced global aerosol property forecasts and physically consistent total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC projects.
K. M. Willett, R. J. H. Dunn, P. W. Thorne, S. Bell, M. de Podesta, D. E. Parker, P. D. Jones, and C. N. Williams Jr.
Clim. Past, 10, 1983–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, 2014
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We have developed HadISDH, a new gridded global land monthly mean climate montitoring product for humidity and temperature from 1973 to then end of 2013 (updated annually) based entirely on in situ observations. Uncertainty estimates are provided. Over the period of record significant warming and increases in water vapour have taken place. The specific humidity trends have slowed since a peak in 1998 concurrent with decreasing relative humidity from 2000 onwards.
J. F. Roberts, A. J. Champion, L. C. Dawkins, K. I. Hodges, L. C. Shaffrey, D. B. Stephenson, M. A. Stringer, H. E. Thornton, and B. D. Youngman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, 2014
A. Oumbe, Z. Qu, P. Blanc, M. Lefèvre, L. Wald, and S. Cros
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1661–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1661-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1661-2014, 2014
T. J. Osborn and P. D. Jones
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 61–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-61-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-61-2014, 2014
C. J. Merchant, S. Matthiesen, N. A. Rayner, J. J. Remedios, P. D. Jones, F. Olesen, B. Trewin, P. W. Thorne, R. Auchmann, G. K. Corlett, P. C. Guillevic, and G. C. Hulley
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 2, 305–321, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-2-305-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-2-305-2013, 2013
M. Lefèvre, A. Oumbe, P. Blanc, B. Espinar, B. Gschwind, Z. Qu, L. Wald, M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, C. Hoyer-Klick, A. Arola, A. Benedetti, J. W. Kaiser, and J.-J. Morcrette
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2403-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2403-2013, 2013
P. E. Bett, H. E. Thornton, and R. T. Clark
Adv. Sci. Res., 10, 51–58, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-51-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-51-2013, 2013
K. M. Willett, C. N. Williams Jr., R. J. H. Dunn, P. W. Thorne, S. Bell, M. de Podesta, P. D. Jones, and D. E. Parker
Clim. Past, 9, 657–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-657-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-657-2013, 2013
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Short summary
The European Climatic Energy Mixes, an EU Copernicus Climate Change Service project, has produced, in close collaboration with prospective users, a proof-of-concept climate service, or Demonstrator, designed to enable the energy industry assess how well different energy supply mixes in Europe will meet demand, over different time horizons (from seasonal to long-term decadal planning), focusing on the role climate has on the mixes. Its concept, methodology and some results are presented here.
The European Climatic Energy Mixes, an EU Copernicus Climate Change Service project, has...
