10 May 2021
| 10 May 2021
Visualization of radar-observed rainfall for hydrological risk assessment
Hydrology Research, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
Peter Berg
Hydrology Research, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
Remco van de Beek
Hydrology Research, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
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Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 79–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-79-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-79-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
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Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
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Short summary
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A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.
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Kean Foster, Cintia Bertacchi Uvo, and Jonas Olsson
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Short summary
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Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical energy production. Careful reservoir management is required for optimal production throughout the year and accurate seasonal forecasts are essential for this. In this work we develop a seasonal forecast prototype and evaluate its ability to predict spring flood volumes, a critical variable, in northern Sweden. We show that the prototype is better than the operational system on average 65 % of the time and reduces the volume error by ~ 6 %.
Peter Berg, Chantal Donnelly, and David Gustafsson
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J. Olsson, C. B. Uvo, K. Foster, and W. Yang
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Short summary
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New approaches to spring-flood forecasting that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal timescales are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in spring-flood hindcasts for three Swedish rivers over a 10-year period. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 5 % was indicated, as compared with today's approach.
W. Yang, M. Gardelin, J. Olsson, and T. Bosshard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2037–2057, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2037-2015, 2015
Short summary
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A distribution-based scaling approach was developed and proven useful as a post-process to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs (i.e. precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) to facilitate the utilisation of climate projections in forest fire risk studies. The result showed reduction of bias in forcing data and an improved description of fire-risk-related indices. Concerning the future climate, southern Sweden is likely to become a more fire-prone region.
B. Eggert, P. Berg, J. O. Haerter, D. Jacob, and C. Moseley
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5957–5971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5957-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-5957-2015, 2015
P. Berg, R. Döscher, and T. Koenigk
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 849–859, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-849-2013, 2013
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Short summary
We have developed a tool to visualize rainfall observations, based on a combination of meteorological stations and weather radars, over Sweden in near real-time. By accumulating the rainfall in time (1–12 h) and space (hydrological basins), the tool is designed mainly for hydrological applications, e.g. to support flood forecasters and to facilitate post-event analyses. Despite evident uncertainties, different users have confirmed an added value of the tool in case studies.
We have developed a tool to visualize rainfall observations, based on a combination of...
