Using value chain approaches to evaluate the end-to-end warning chain
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Elizabeth E. Ebert
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Carla Mooney
Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Brian Golding
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Sally Potter
GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
Related authors
Jeff Da Costa, Elizabeth Ebert, David Hoffmann, Hannah Louise Cloke, and Jessica Neumann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3892, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This paper examines why multiple early indicators of the July 2021 floods in Luxembourg did not lead to better anticipatory action. Using a value chain approach and the Waterdrop Model, it identifies how thresholds, procedures, and institutional responsibilities limited the use of available forecast information under uncertainty. The findings show how aligning information with decision processes can improve timely disaster response.
Brian Golding, Elizabeth Ebert, David Hoffmann, and Sally Potter
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 85–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-85-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-85-2023, 2023
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In 2021, several weather disasters occurred in which conditions surpassed recorded extremes. Comparative analysis of the warnings issued for these disasters shows that the conditions were generally forecast but that lack of preparedness and/or communication failures led to loss of life in particularly vulnerable groups.
Jeff Da Costa, Elizabeth Ebert, David Hoffmann, Hannah Louise Cloke, and Jessica Neumann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3892, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This paper examines why multiple early indicators of the July 2021 floods in Luxembourg did not lead to better anticipatory action. Using a value chain approach and the Waterdrop Model, it identifies how thresholds, procedures, and institutional responsibilities limited the use of available forecast information under uncertainty. The findings show how aligning information with decision processes can improve timely disaster response.
Brian Golding, Elizabeth Ebert, David Hoffmann, and Sally Potter
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 85–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-85-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-85-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2021, several weather disasters occurred in which conditions surpassed recorded extremes. Comparative analysis of the warnings issued for these disasters shows that the conditions were generally forecast but that lack of preparedness and/or communication failures led to loss of life in particularly vulnerable groups.
Chiara Marsigli, Elizabeth Ebert, Raghavendra Ashrit, Barbara Casati, Jing Chen, Caio A. S. Coelho, Manfred Dorninger, Eric Gilleland, Thomas Haiden, Stephanie Landman, and Marion Mittermaier
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This paper reviews new observations for the verification of high-impact weather and provides advice for their usage in objective verification. New observations include remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting, datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected from citizens, reports of impacts and reports from insurance companies. This work has been performed in the framework of the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) of the WMO.
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Short summary
The weather information value chain is a framework that describes how information is produced, communicated, and used in an end-to-end warning system for weather and hazard monitoring. A project under the WMO aims to explore value chain approaches to describe and evaluate high-impact weather events. The project developed a template for high-impact weather event case study collection, which allows scientists and practitioners to assess the effectiveness of warning value chains.
The weather information value chain is a framework that describes how information is produced,...