Assessing the performance of reanalysis and meso-scale model datasets for onshore wind power modelling in Germany
David Geiger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sustainable Electrical Energy Systems, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 73, 34121 Kassel, Germany
Fraunhofer IEE, Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology, Joseph-Beuys-Straße 8, 34117 Kassel, Germany
Christoph Zink
Fraunhofer IEE, Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology, Joseph-Beuys-Straße 8, 34117 Kassel, Germany
Franziska Bär
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Climate and Environment, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach, Germany
Maximilian Pfennig
Fraunhofer IEE, Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology, Joseph-Beuys-Straße 8, 34117 Kassel, Germany
Doron Callies
Fraunhofer IEE, Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology, Joseph-Beuys-Straße 8, 34117 Kassel, Germany
Sustainable Electrical Energy Systems, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 73, 34121 Kassel, Germany
Carsten Pape
Fraunhofer IEE, Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology, Joseph-Beuys-Straße 8, 34117 Kassel, Germany
Jaqueline Drücke
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Climate and Environment, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach, Germany
Lukas Pauscher
Sustainable Electrical Energy Systems, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 73, 34121 Kassel, Germany
Fraunhofer IEE, Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology, Joseph-Beuys-Straße 8, 34117 Kassel, Germany
Acoustics and Vibrations Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, Brussels, 1050, Belgium
Related authors
Philip Gauglitz, David Geiger, Jan Ulffers, and Evamaria Zauner
Adv. Geosci., 56, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model two kinds of demand for public charging infrastructure: As compensation for the lack of home charging points, and based on points of interest. We combine those two demands with the available parking spaces and generate distributions for possible future charging points. We use a raster-based approach on a municipality’s full grid. The model is compared with three other models in a correlation comparison in order to determine the influence of certain model assumptions and input data.
Kira Gramitzky, Florian Jäger, Doron Callies, Tabea Hildebrand, Julie K. Lundquist, and Lukas Pauscher
Wind Energ. Sci., 11, 861–882, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-861-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-11-861-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces an extended sea surface levelling method for the accurate offshore calibration of scanning lidars. This method can determine the alignment of the laser beam, including any vertical shift, and is independent of the scan pattern. Tests using real measurement data and a detailed uncertainty study confirm its reliability. The study offers a versatile calibration approach and improves confidence in offshore wind measurements with scanning lidars.
Uwe Pfeifroth, Jaqueline Drücke, Steffen Kothe, Jörg Trentmann, Marc Schröder, and Rainer Hollmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 5243–5265, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-5243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The energy reaching Earth's surface from the Sun is a quantity of great importance for the climate system and for many applications. SARAH-3 is a satellite-based climate data record of surface solar radiation parameters. It is generated and distributed by the EUMETSAT Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF). SARAH-3 covers more than 4 decades and provides a high spatial and temporal resolution, and its validation shows good accuracy and stability.
Alexander Basse, Doron Callies, Anselm Grötzner, and Lukas Pauscher
Wind Energ. Sci., 6, 1473–1490, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1473-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-6-1473-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates systematic, seasonal biases in the long-term correction of short-term wind measurements (< 1 year). Two popular measure–correlate–predict (MCP) methods yield remarkably different results. Six reanalysis data sets serve as long-term data. Besides experimental results, theoretical findings are presented which link the mechanics of the methods and the properties of the reanalysis data sets to the observations. Finally, recommendations for wind park planners are derived.
Philip Gauglitz, David Geiger, Jan Ulffers, and Evamaria Zauner
Adv. Geosci., 56, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-56-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model two kinds of demand for public charging infrastructure: As compensation for the lack of home charging points, and based on points of interest. We combine those two demands with the available parking spaces and generate distributions for possible future charging points. We use a raster-based approach on a municipality’s full grid. The model is compared with three other models in a correlation comparison in order to determine the influence of certain model assumptions and input data.
Cited articles
Bollmeyer, C., Keller, J. D., Ohlwein, C., Wahl, S., Crewell, S., Friederichs, P., Hense, A., Keune, J., Kneifel, S., Pscheidt, I., Redl, S., and Steinke, S.: Towards a high‐resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX domain, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2486, 2015. a, b
Borrmann, R., Rehfeldt, D. K., and Kruse, D. D.: Volllaststunden von Windenergieanlagen an Land – Entwicklungen, Einflüsse, Auswirkungen, https://www.windguard.de/veroeffentlichungen.html?file=files/cto_layout/img/unternehmen/veroeffentlichungen/2020/Volllaststunden von Windenergieanlagen an Land 2020.pdf (last access: 4 January 2025), 2020. a, b
Brune, S., Keller, J. D., and Wahl, S.: Evaluation of wind speed estimates in reanalyses for wind energy applications, Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 115–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-115-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Bundesnetzagentur: Markstammdatenregister, https://www.marktstammdatenregister.de/MaStR/Datendownload (last access: 27 December 2024), 2019. a
Bundesnetzagentur: Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de, https://www.smard.de/home/downloadcenter/download-marktdaten (last access: 4 November 2025), 2025. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Dörenkämper, M., Olsen, B. T., Witha, B., Hahmann, A. N., Davis, N. N., Barcons, J., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Sastre-Marugán, M., Sīle, T., Trei, W., Žagar, M., Badger, J., Gottschall, J., Sanz Rodrigo, J., and Mann, J.: The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5079–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Gualtieri, G.: Reliability of ERA5 Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment: A Comparison against Tall Towers, Energies, 14, 4169, https://doi.org/10.3390/en14144169, 2021. a
Gualtieri, G.: Analysing the Uncertainties of Reanalysis Data Used for Wind Resource Assessment: A Critical Review, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 167, 112741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112741, 2022. a
Hahmann, A. N., Sīle, T., Witha, B., Davis, N. N., Dörenkämper, M., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Olsen, B. T., and Söderberg, S.: The making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 1: Model sensitivity, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5053–5078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5053-2020, 2020. a, b
Hahmann, A. N., Sīle, T., Witha, B., Davis, N., Dörenkämper, M., Ezber, Y., García-Bustamante, E., González-Rouco, J. F., Navarro, J., Olsen, B. T., Söderberg, S., Barcons, J., Sastre-Marugán, M., Trei, W., Žagar, M., Badger, J., Gottschall, J., Sanz Rodrigo, J., Mann, J., and Vasiljevic, N.: New European Wind Atlas: Mesoscale Atlas, Technical University of Denmark [data set], https://doi.org/10.11583/DTU.14414096.v1, 2021. a
Hayes, L., Stocks, M., and Blakers, A.: Accurate Long-Term Power Generation Model for Offshore Wind Farms in Europe Using ERA5 Reanalysis, Energy, 229, 120603, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120603, 2021. a, b, c, d
Heppelmann, T., Steiner, A., and Vogt, S.: Application of Numerical Weather Prediction in Wind Power Forecasting: Assessment of the Diurnal Cycle, Meteorol. Z., 26, 319–331, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0820, 2017. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R.J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: Complete ERA5 from 1940: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf (last access: 26 February 2025), 2017. a, b, c
Hu, W., Scholz, Y., Yeligeti, M., Bremen, L. V., and Deng, Y.: Downscaling ERA5 wind speed data: a machine learning approach considering topographic influences, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 094007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aceb0a, 2023. a, b
Kaiser-Weiss, A. K., Kaspar, F., Heene, V., Borsche, M., Tan, D. G. H., Poli, P., Obregon, A., and Gregow, H.: Comparison of regional and global reanalysis near-surface winds with station observations over Germany, Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 187–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-187-2015, 2015. a, b
Lehneis, R., Manske, D., and Thrän, D.: Modeling of the German Wind Power Production with High Spatiotemporal Resolution, ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 10, 104, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10020104, 2021. a
Murcia, J. P., Koivisto, M. J., Luzia, G., Olsen, B. T., Hahmann, A. N., Sørensen, P. E., and Als, M.: Validation of European-scale Simulated Wind Speed and Wind Generation Time Series, Appl. Energ., 305, 117794, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117794, 2022. a, b, c
Olauson, J.: ERA5: The new champion of wind power modelling?, Renew. Energ., 126, 322–331, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.03.056, 2018. a, b, c
Pauscher, L., Geiger, D., Yuan, D., Bär, F., Good, G., Spangehl, T., Kaspar, F., Weber, H., and Callies, D.: An evaluation and comparison of wind speeds from different reanalysis models in the context of wind energy – the influence of topography, EMS Annual Meeting 2024, Barcelona, Spain, 1–6 September 2024, EMS2024-957, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-957, 2024. a
Pflugfelder, Y., Kramer, H., and Weber, C.: A Novel Approach to Generate Bias-Corrected Regional Wind Infeed Timeseries Based on Reanalysis Data, Appl. Energ., 361, 122890, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122890, 2024. a, b
Ramon, J., Lledó, L., Pérez-Zanón, N., Soret, A., and Doblas-Reyes, F. J.: The Tall Tower Dataset: a unique initiative to boost wind energy research, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 429–439, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-429-2020, 2020. a
Saint-Drenan, Y.-M., Besseau, R., Jansen, M., Staffell, I., Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., Schmidt, J., Gruber, K., Simões, S. G., and Heier, S.: A parametric model for wind turbine power curves incorporating environmental conditions, Renew. Energ., 157, 754–768, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.04.123, 2020. a
Schimanke, S., Ridal, M., Le Moigne, P., Berggren, L., Undén, P., Randriamampianina, R., Andrea, U., Bazile, E., Bertelsen, A., Brousseau, P., Dahlgren, P., Edvinsson, L., El Said, A., Glinton, M., Hopsch, S., Isaksson, L., Mladek, R., Olsson, E., Verrelle, A., and Wang, Z. Q.: CERRA sub-daily regional reanalysis data for Europe on height levels from 1984 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.38b394e6 (last access: 26 February 2025), 2021. a, b, c
Spangehl, T., Borsche, M., Niermann, D., Kaspar, F., Schimanke, S., Brienen, S., Möller, T., and Brast, M.: Intercomparing the quality of recent reanalyses for offshore wind farm planning in Germany's exclusive economic zone of the North Sea, Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 109–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, 2023. a, b, c
Staffell, I. and Pfenninger, S.: Using bias-corrected reanalysis to simulate current and future wind power output, Energy, 114, 1224–1239, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.068, 2016. a, b, c, d
Syed, A. H. and Mann, J.: A Model for Low-Frequency, Anisotropic Wind Fluctuations and Coherences in the Marine Atmosphere, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 190, 1, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-023-00850-w, 2024. a
Wilczak, J. M., Akish, E., Capotondi, A., and Compo, G. P.: Evaluation and Bias Correction of the ERA5 Reanalysis over the United States for Wind and Solar Energy Applications, Energies, 17, 1667, https://doi.org/10.3390/en17071667, 2024. a, b
Short summary
In this paper we analyse the suitability of different reanalyses and meso-scale models for simulating wind energy in Germany. We found that all datasets overestimate energy production, with errors ranging from 5 % to 45 %. This suggests that the underlying models may not accurately reflect average wind conditions. CERRA and ERA5 performed the best, but they also require regional adjustment. Understanding the cause of these differences is crucial for improving weather and wind energy modelling.
In this paper we analyse the suitability of different reanalyses and meso-scale models for...