Articles | Volume 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-23-1-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-23-1-2026
18 Jun 2026
 | 18 Jun 2026

Which forecast errors matter most? Assessing public priorities in weather forecast accuracy

Christoph Sauter and Kathrin Wapler

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Cited articles

Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Van Den Broek, E., Fasolo, B., and Katsikopoulos, K. V.: “A 30 % chance of rain tomorrow”: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?, Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 25, 623–629, 2005. 
Joslyn, S. and Savelli, S.: Communicating forecast uncertainty: Public perception of weather forecast uncertainty, Meteorol. Appl., 17, 180–195, 2010. 
Kox, T., Kempf, H., Lüder, C., Hagedorn, R., and Gerhold, L.: Towards user-orientated weather warnings, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 30, 74–80, 2018. 
Krocak, M. J., Ripberger, J. T., Ernst, S., Silva, C., Jenkins-Smith, H., and Bitterman, A.: Public information priorities across weather hazards and time scales, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 104, E768–E780, 2023. 
Lazo, J. K., Morss, R. E., and Demuth, J. L.: 300 billion served: Sources, perceptions, uses, and values of weather forecasts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 785–798, 2009.  
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Short summary
Weather forecasts have greatly improved over recent decades, yet errors remain. We studied how people judge different types of forecast errors using two short surveys. People rated errors differently depending on their consequences, with forecasts that underestimated the intensity and persistence of events judged most negatively. These findings show what forecast users value and contribute to the development of verification methods that better reflect public needs.
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