Long-range forecasts for the energy market – a case study

Abstract. We examined the feasibility of long-range forecasts of temperature for needs of the energy sector in Helsinki, Finland. The work was done jointly by Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and Helen Ltd, the main Helsinki metropolitan area energy provider, and especially provider of district heating and cooling. Because temperatures govern the need of heating and cooling and, therefore, the energy demand, better long-range forecasts of temperature would be highly useful for Helen Ltd. Heating degree day (HDD) is a parameter that indicates the demand of energy to heat a building. We examined the forecasted monthly HDD values for Helsinki using UK Met Office seasonal forecasts with the lead time up to two months. The long-range forecasts of monthly HDD showed some skill in Helsinki in winter 2015–2016, especially if the very cold January is excluded.