Articles | Volume 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017
24 Apr 2017
 | 24 Apr 2017

Long-range forecasts for the energy market – a case study

Otto Hyvärinen, Antti Mäkelä, Matti Kämäräinen, and Hilppa Gregow

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Cited articles

MacLachlan, C., Arribas, A., Peterson, K. A., Maidens, A., Fereday, D., Scaife, A. A., Gordon, M., Vellinga, M., Williams, A., Comer, R. E., Camp, J., Xavier, P., and Madec, G.: Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1072–1084, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396, 2015.
UNFCCC: Adoption of the Paris Agreement, 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris: United Nations, 2015.
Valor, E., Meneu, V., Caselles, V., Valor, E., Meneu, V., and Caselles, V.: Daily Air Temperature and Electricity Load in Spain, J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 1413–1421, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1413:DATAEL>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
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Finnish Meteorological Institute and Helen Ltd examined the feasibility of long-range forecasts (longer than two weeks) of temperature for needs of the energy sector in Helsinki, Finland. In this study, we examined the quality of Heating degree day (HDD) forecasts. As the forecasts we used UK Met Office seasonal forecasts. The long-range forecasts of monthly HDD showed some skill in Helsinki in winter 2015–2016, up to two months, especially if the very cold January is excluded.