Articles | Volume 15
03 Aug 2018
 | 03 Aug 2018

A new framework for probabilistic seasonal forecasts based on circulation type classifications and driven by an ensemble global model

Gianni Messeri, Riccardo Benedetti, Alfonso Crisci, Bernardo Gozzini, Matteo Rossi, Roberto Vallorani, and Giampiero Maracchi

Data sets

Circulation type classifications for surface temperature and precipitation optimized for Italy R. Vallorani, G. Messeri, A. Crisci, and M. Iannuccilli

Short summary
This new framework for high resoluted seasonal forecast allows an easier use of the information contained in the complex system of atmospheric circulations through their reduction to a limited number of circulation types starting from a global ensemble model. Further investigations are ongoing in order to lead predictions of the risk of heavy rainfall, drought or heat waves, all important parameters for agriculture, water management and severe weather risk assessment.