Articles | Volume 15
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 183–190, 2018
Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 183–190, 2018

  03 Aug 2018

03 Aug 2018

A new framework for probabilistic seasonal forecasts based on circulation type classifications and driven by an ensemble global model

Gianni Messeri et al.

Related authors

Public crowdsensing of heat waves by social media data
Valentina Grasso, Alfonso Crisci, Marco Morabito, Paolo Nesi, and Gianni Pantaleo
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 217–226,,, 2017
Short summary
Engaging students and teachers in meteorology and atmospheric sciences: the LaMMA activities
Valentina Grasso, Giorgio Bartolini, Riccardo Benedetti, Giulio Betti, Valerio Capecchi, Bernardo Gozzini, Ramona Magno, Andrea Orlandi, Luca Rovai, Claudio Tei, Tommaso Torrigiani, and Federica Zabini
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 109–114,,, 2017
Short summary
Italian codified hashtags for weather warning on Twitter – who is really using them?
Valentina Grasso, Alfonso Crisci, Marco Morabito, Paolo Nesi, Gianni Pantaleo, Imad Zaza, and Bernardo Gozzini
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 63–69,,, 2017
Short summary

Cited articles

Angstrom, A.: On the effectivity of weather warnings, Nordisk Statistisk Tidskrift, 1, 394–408, 1922. 
Benedetti, R.: Scoring Rules for Forecast Verification, American Meteorological Society, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 203–211,, 2010. 
Broderick, C. and Fealy R.: An analysis of the synoptic and climatological applicability of circulation type classifications for Ireland, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 451–505,, 2014. 
Fernandez-Montes, S., Seubert, S., Rodrigo, F. S., Rasilla Álvarez, D. F., Herting, E., Esteban, P., and Philipp, A.: Circulation types and extreme precipitation days in the Iberian Peninsula in the transition seasons: Spatial links and temporal changes, Atmos. Res., 138, 41–58,, 2014. 
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones P. D., and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D20119,, 2008. 
Short summary
This new framework for high resoluted seasonal forecast allows an easier use of the information contained in the complex system of atmospheric circulations through their reduction to a limited number of circulation types starting from a global ensemble model. Further investigations are ongoing in order to lead predictions of the risk of heavy rainfall, drought or heat waves, all important parameters for agriculture, water management and severe weather risk assessment.