Articles | Volume 15
03 Aug 2018
 | 03 Aug 2018

A new framework for probabilistic seasonal forecasts based on circulation type classifications and driven by an ensemble global model

Gianni Messeri, Riccardo Benedetti, Alfonso Crisci, Bernardo Gozzini, Matteo Rossi, Roberto Vallorani, and Giampiero Maracchi

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Cited articles

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Broderick, C. and Fealy R.: An analysis of the synoptic and climatological applicability of circulation type classifications for Ireland, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 451–505,, 2014. 
Fernandez-Montes, S., Seubert, S., Rodrigo, F. S., Rasilla Álvarez, D. F., Herting, E., Esteban, P., and Philipp, A.: Circulation types and extreme precipitation days in the Iberian Peninsula in the transition seasons: Spatial links and temporal changes, Atmos. Res., 138, 41–58,, 2014. 
Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Klok, E. J., Jones P. D., and New, M.: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D20119,, 2008. 
Short summary
This new framework for high resoluted seasonal forecast allows an easier use of the information contained in the complex system of atmospheric circulations through their reduction to a limited number of circulation types starting from a global ensemble model. Further investigations are ongoing in order to lead predictions of the risk of heavy rainfall, drought or heat waves, all important parameters for agriculture, water management and severe weather risk assessment.