28 May 2018
| 28 May 2018
Mapping users' expectations regarding extended-range forecasts
Tiina Ervasti
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Hilppa Gregow
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Andrea Vajda
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Terhi K. Laurila
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Antti Mäkelä
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
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We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Terhi K. Laurila, Hilppa Gregow, Joona Cornér, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1111–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1111-2021, 2021
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We create a climatology of mid-latitude cyclones and windstorms in northern Europe and investigate how sensitive the minimum pressure and maximum gust of windstorms are to four precursors. Windstorms are more common in the cold season than the warm season, whereas the number of mid-latitude cyclones has no annual cycle. The low-level temperature gradient has the strongest impact of all considered precursors on the intensity of windstorms in terms of both the minimum pressure and maximum gust.
Otto Hyvärinen, Terhi K. Laurila, Olle Räty, Natalia Korhonen, Andrea Vajda, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 127–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021, 2021
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Wind speed forecasts have many potential users that could benefit from skilful forecasts. We validated weekly mean speed forecasts for Finland using
forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We concentrate on winter (November, December and January) forecasts.
The forecasts proved to be skilful until the third week, but the longest skilful lead time depends on how the skill is calculated and what is used as the reference.
Roope Tervo, Ilona Láng, Alexander Jung, and Antti Mäkelä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 607–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-607-2021, 2021
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Predicting the number of power outages caused by extratropical storms is a key challenge for power grid operators. We introduce a novel method to predict the storm severity for the power grid employing ERA5 reanalysis data combined with a forest inventory. The storms are first identified from the data and then classified using several machine-learning methods. While there is plenty of room to improve, the results are already usable, with support vector classifier providing the best performance.
Andrea Vajda and Otto Hyvärinen
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 269–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-269-2020, 2020
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We studied the applicability of seasonal forecast outputs in agriculture in Finland. The quality of seasonal forecasts output was assessed, and six tailored seasonal forecast indices were co-designed, developed in close collaboration with the Central Union of Agricultural Producers and Forest Owners and piloted with over 200 farmers. Although the tested seasonal forecast indices had a limited skill and need further improvements, the farmers found the climate outlooks useful.
Havu Pellikka, Terhi K. Laurila, Hanna Boman, Anu Karjalainen, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2535–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2535-2020, 2020
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Meteotsunamis are long waves created by atmospheric disturbances travelling over the sea. These waves can be hazardous in rare cases. Their occurrence in the Baltic Sea has been poorly known, which is why we examine century-long sea level records from the Gulf of Finland to identify these waves. In total, 121 potential meteotsunamis were found. The strong connection between meteotsunami occurrence and lightning observations indicates that meteotsunamis in this region occur during thunderstorms.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, David S. Richardson, Heikki Järvinen, and Hilppa Gregow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020, 2020
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Reanalysis data of the strength of the polar vortex is applied in the post-processing of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter surface temperature forecasts for weeks 3–4 and 5–6 over northern Europe. In this way, the skill scores of these forecasts are slightly improved. It is also found that, in cases where the polar vortex was weak at the start of the forecast, the mean skill scores of these forecasts were higher than average.
Taru Olsson, Anna Luomaranta, Kirsti Jylhä, Julia Jeworrek, Tuuli Perttula, Christian Dieterich, Lichuan Wu, Anna Rutgersson, and Antti Mäkelä
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 87–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-87-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-87-2020, 2020
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Statistics of the frequency and intensity of snow bands affecting the Finnish coast during years 2000–2010 was conducted. A set of criteria for meteorological variables favoring the formation of the snow bands were applied to regional climate model (RCA4) data. We found on average three days per year with favorable conditions for coastal sea-effect snowfall. The heaviest convective snowfall events were detected most frequently over the southern coastline.
Otto Hyvärinen, Ari Venäläinen, and Andrea Vajda
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 23–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-23-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-23-2020, 2020
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The monthly mean soil moisture forecasts for forestry are been developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute in cooperation with Finnish end-users. Such forecasts help in timber harvesting planning, and forecasts could large economic value. Therefore the skillfulness of forecasts was measured. Throughout the year the first month was skillful, and after that it can be hard to say if the forecasts are better than the normal conditions. Winter forecasts are a bit better than summer forecasts.
Hannu Valta, Ilari Lehtonen, Terhi K. Laurila, Ari Venäläinen, Mikko Laapas, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 31–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-31-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-31-2019, 2019
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A comparison of forest damage with windstorm intensity in Finland suggests that the volume of forest damage follows approximately a power relation as a function of wind gust speed with a power of ~10. This tentative estimate holds for typical windstorms having mainly westerly winds and affecting large areas in southern and central parts of Finland. The estimate can be utilized when preparing impact-based predictions of windstorms.
Winfried Hoke, Tina Swierczynski, Peter Braesicke, Karin Lochte, Len Shaffrey, Martin Drews, Hilppa Gregow, Ralf Ludwig, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Elisa Palazzi, Gianmaria Sannino, Lars Henrik Smedsrud, and ECRA network
Adv. Geosci., 46, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019, 2019
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The European Climate Research Alliance is a bottom-up association of European research institutions helping to facilitate the development of climate change research, combining the capacities of national research institutions and inducing closer ties between existing national research initiatives, projects and infrastructures. This article briefly introduces the network's structure and organisation, as well as project management issues and prospects.
Atte Harjanne, Riina Haavisto, Heikki Tuomenvirta, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 293–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-293-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-293-2017, 2017
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Weather, climate and climate change can cause significant risks to businesses and public administration. By asking Finnish organizations about their weather and climate risk perceptions and management, this study aims to improve ways climate services can support in adapting to current and future climate. The results indicate that climate risk management is often de-centralized and relies on expert networks but that practices differ between actors.
Otto Hyvärinen, Antti Mäkelä, Matti Kämäräinen, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 89–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017, 2017
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Finnish Meteorological Institute and Helen Ltd examined the feasibility of long-range forecasts (longer than two weeks) of temperature for needs of the energy sector in Helsinki, Finland. In this study, we examined the quality of Heating degree day (HDD) forecasts. As the forecasts we used UK Met Office seasonal forecasts. The long-range forecasts of monthly HDD showed some skill in Helsinki in winter 2015–2016, up to two months, especially if the very cold January is excluded.
Matti Kämäräinen, Otto Hyvärinen, Kirsti Jylhä, Andrea Vajda, Simo Neiglick, Jaakko Nuottokari, and Hilppa Gregow
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 243–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-243-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-243-2017, 2017
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Freezing rain is a high-impact wintertime weather phenomenon. The direct damage it causes to critical infrastructure (transportation, communication and energy) and forestry can be substantial. In this work a method for estimating the occurrence of freezing rain was evaluated and used to derive the climatology. The method was able to accurately reproduce the observed, spatially aggregated annual variability. The highest frequencies of freezing rain were found in eastern and central Europe.
Erik Gregow, Antti Pessi, Antti Mäkelä, and Elena Saltikoff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 267–279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-267-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-267-2017, 2017
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A new lightning data assimilation method has been implemented and validated within the Finnish Meteorological Institute – Local Analysis and Prediction System. Lightning data do improve the analysis when no radars are available, and even with radar data, lightning data have a positive impact on the results.
We also investigate the usage of different time integration intervals: 1, 6, 12, 24 h and 7 days, where the 1 h integration time length gives the best results.
Ilari Lehtonen, Matti Kämäräinen, Hilppa Gregow, Ari Venäläinen, and Heli Peltola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2259–2271, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2259-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2259-2016, 2016
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We studied the impact of projected climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland. Although winters are projected to become milder over the whole of Finland, our results suggest than in eastern and northern Finland the risk may increase while in southern and western parts of the country it is projected to decrease. This indicates that there is increasing need to consider the potential of snow damage in forest management in eastern and northern Finland.
Pekka Rantala, Leena Järvi, Risto Taipale, Terhi K. Laurila, Johanna Patokoski, Maija K. Kajos, Mona Kurppa, Sami Haapanala, Erkki Siivola, Tuukka Petäjä, Taina M. Ruuskanen, and Janne Rinne
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7981–8007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7981-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7981-2016, 2016
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Fluxes of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were measured above an urban landscape in Helsinki, northern Europe. We found that traffic was a major source for many oxygenated and aromatic VOCs, whereas isoprene originated mostly from the urban vegetation. Overall, the VOC fluxes were quite small in comparison with the earlier urban VOC flux measurements.
I. Lehtonen, A. Venäläinen, M. Kämäräinen, H. Peltola, and H. Gregow
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 239–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016, 2016
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The number of large forest fires in Finland will most likely increase during the twenty-first century in response to projected climate change. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to effective fire suppression. However, our results show considerable inter-model variability, demonstrating the large uncertainty related to the rate of the projected change in forest-fire danger.
A. K. Kaiser-Weiss, F. Kaspar, V. Heene, M. Borsche, D. G. H. Tan, P. Poli, A. Obregon, and H. Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 187–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-187-2015, 2015
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Wind speed measured at the German stations correlate well with reanalysis fields. Monthly means from two global reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-Interim) and one regional reanalysis (COSMO-REA6) were analysed and correlate well for the majority of the German stations. Thus we conclude that the monthly and seasonal anomalies recorded at these stations can be understood as representative for a spatial area comparable to the resolution of the reanalyses, at least for the recent years.
P. Jokinen, A. Vajda, and H. Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 97–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-97-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-97-2015, 2015
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Emergency rescue data and weather reanalysis data were combined to study the spatial and decadal characteristics of potential forest damage days in Finland due to windstorms. The most prone area for damage days was the south-western part of Finland. Results also indicated a lull period during the 1990s compared to the 1980s and 2000s, albeit no trend was evident. The study highlighted the importance of not only focusing on wind speeds, but also soil conditions.
H. Gregow, P. Poli, H. M. Mäkelä, K. Jylhä, A. K. Kaiser-Weiss, A. Obregon, D. G. H. Tan, S. Kekki, and F. Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-63-2015, 2015
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Many users of climate information are unaware of the availability of reanalysis feedback data and input observations, and uptake of feedback data is rather low. The most important factors limiting the use of this data is that the users feel that there is no easy interface to get the data or they do not find it at all. The relevant communities should invest resources to develop tools and provide training to bridge the gap between current capabilities and comprehensive exploitation of the data.
O. Hyvärinen, L. Mtilatila, K. Pilli-Sihvola, A. Venäläinen, and H. Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 31–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-31-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-31-2015, 2015
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We assessed the quality of the seasonal precipitation forecasts issued by Regional Climate Outlook Forum for Malawi and Zambia. The forecasts, issued in August, are of rainy season rainfall accumulations for early and late season. The forecasts are rather well-calibrated, but cannot discriminate between different events. But these results can be too pessimistic, because forecasts have gone through much development lately, and forecasts using current methodology might have performed better.
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Short summary
An online survey was used to map the needs and preferences of the Finnish general public about extended-range forecasts and their presentation. Survey results guided the co-design process of novel extended-range forecasts in the project. The respondents considered that the tailored extended-range forecasts would be beneficial in planning activities, preparing for weather risks and scheduling everyday life. They also valued impact information higher than advice on how to prepare for the impacts.
An online survey was used to map the needs and preferences of the Finnish general public about...
