Advances in Science and Research
Advances in Science and Research
ASR
Articles | Volume 17
Articles | Volume 17
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-39-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-39-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17
03 Jun 2020
 | 03 Jun 2020

A possibilistic interpretation of ensemble forecasts: experiments on the imperfect Lorenz 96 system

Noémie Le Carrer and Peter L. Green

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Short summary
Ensemble forecasting has gained popularity as a means of handling the limitations inherent to predicting the behavior of high dimensional systems with strong sensitivity to initial conditions. Initial conditions are sampled and propagated through the model equations, leading to a set of predictions. So far, this set has been interpreted in a probabilistic way. Here, we question this choice and show that possibility theory may be a sounder approach, especially in the case of extreme events.
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