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Advances in Science and Research Contributions in Applied Meteorology and Climatology
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We assessed the quality of the seasonal precipitation forecasts issued by Regional Climate Outlook Forum for Malawi and Zambia. The forecasts, issued in August, are of rainy season rainfall accumulations for early and late season. The forecasts are rather well-calibrated, but cannot discriminate between different events. But these results can be too pessimistic, because forecasts have gone through much development lately, and forecasts using current methodology might have performed better.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 31–36, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-31-2015
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 31–36, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-31-2015

  02 Apr 2015

02 Apr 2015

The verification of seasonal precipitation forecasts for early warning in Zambia and Malawi

O. Hyvärinen et al.

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Cited articles

Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Hamill, T.: Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts, Weather Forecast., 14, 155–167, 1999.
Hansen, J. W., Mason, S. J., Sun, L., and Tall, A.: Review of Seasonal Climate Forecasting for Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, Exp. Agr., 47, 205–240, https://doi.org/10.1017/S0014479710000876, 2011.
Kirtman, B. and Pirani, A.: The State of the Art of Seasonal Prediction: Outcomes and Recommendations from the First World Climate Research Program Workshop on Seasonal Prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 455–458, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2707.1, 2009.
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Short summary
We assessed the quality of the seasonal precipitation forecasts issued by Regional Climate Outlook Forum for Malawi and Zambia. The forecasts, issued in August, are of rainy season rainfall accumulations for early and late season. The forecasts are rather well-calibrated, but cannot discriminate between different events. But these results can be too pessimistic, because forecasts have gone through much development lately, and forecasts using current methodology might have performed better.
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