Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
02 Apr 2015
 | 02 Apr 2015

The verification of seasonal precipitation forecasts for early warning in Zambia and Malawi

O. Hyvärinen, L. Mtilatila, K. Pilli-Sihvola, A. Venäläinen, and H. Gregow

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Cited articles

Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P.-P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., Arkin, P., and Nelkin, E.: The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167,<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
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Short summary
We assessed the quality of the seasonal precipitation forecasts issued by Regional Climate Outlook Forum for Malawi and Zambia. The forecasts, issued in August, are of rainy season rainfall accumulations for early and late season. The forecasts are rather well-calibrated, but cannot discriminate between different events. But these results can be too pessimistic, because forecasts have gone through much development lately, and forecasts using current methodology might have performed better.