29 May 2017
Weather dependent estimation of continent-wide wind power generation based on spatio-temporal clustering
Bruno U. Schyska
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Physics, Energy Meteorology group, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
ForWind Center for Wind Energy Research, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
António Couto
Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia, Energy Analysis and Networks Unit, Lisboa, Portugal
Lueder von Bremen
Institute of Physics, Energy Meteorology group, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
ForWind Center for Wind Energy Research, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
Ana Estanqueiro
Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia, Energy Analysis and Networks Unit, Lisboa, Portugal
Detlev Heinemann
Institute of Physics, Energy Meteorology group, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
ForWind Center for Wind Energy Research, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany
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Remote-sensing-based approaches have shown potential for minute-scale forecasting and need to be further developed towards an operational use. In this work we extend a lidar-based forecast to an observer-based probabilistic power forecast by combining it with a SCADA-based method. We further aggregate individual turbine power using a copula approach. We found that the observer-based forecast benefits from combining lidar and SCADA data and can outperform persistence for unstable stratification.
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We performed an irradiance forecast experiment based on analysis of
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