Articles | Volume 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-191-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-191-2019
26 Aug 2019
 | 26 Aug 2019

Development of an empirical model for seasonal forecasting over the Mediterranean

Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado, Antonio Ángel Serrano-de la Torre, Eroteida Sánchez-García, Marta Domínguez-Alonso, and Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino

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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Cited articles

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Doblas-Reyes, F. J., García-Serrano, J., Lienert, F., Biescas, A. P., and Rodrigues, L. R.: Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects, WIREs Climate Change, 4, 245–268, https://doi.org/10.1002/WCC.217, 2013.  
Eden, J. M., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Hawkins, E., and Suckling, E. B.: A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3947–3973, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015, 2015. 
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Short summary
In the frame of MEDSCOPE project, a seasonal forecast empirical model for the Mediterranean is proposed. It uses a sub regions based set up, with different inputs for every area, from an initial set of global climate indices. However, is configurated to be able to easily incorporate other sources of information. Results show spatially consistent structure, and measurements of its skill shows it performs at the level (and better over some areas) of main dynamical models for seasonal forecasting.
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