Articles | Volume 16
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-165-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-165-2019
13 Aug 2019
 | 13 Aug 2019

Regionally improved seasonal forecast of precipitation through Best estimation of winter NAO

Eroteida Sánchez-García, José Voces-Aboy, Beatriz Navascués, and Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino

Data sets

An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets R. Cornes, G. van der Schrier, E. J. M van den Besselaar, and P. D. Jones https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200

E-OBS gridded dataset European Climate Assesment & Dataset project https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/download.php

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Short summary
We have described a methodology for ensemble member’s weighting of operational seasonal forecasting systems based on an enhanced prediction of a driver of climate variability strongly affecting certain climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation) over a certain region. We have applied it to the North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the Iberian Peninsula winter precipitation. This approach is fully general and consequently applicable to any other SFS providing a skilful NAO signal.