Articles | Volume 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-127-2021
04 Aug 2021
 | 04 Aug 2021

Winter Subseasonal Wind Speed Forecasts for Finland from ECMWF

Otto Hyvärinen, Terhi K. Laurila, Olle Räty, Natalia Korhonen, Andrea Vajda, and Hilppa Gregow

Related authors

The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Development of seasonal climate outlooks for agriculture in Finland
Andrea Vajda and Otto Hyvärinen
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 269–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-269-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Adding value to extended-range forecasts in northern Europe by statistical post-processing using stratospheric observations
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Matti Kämäräinen, David S. Richardson, Heikki Järvinen, and Hilppa Gregow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8441–8451, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8441-2020, 2020
Short summary
Bias-adjusted seasonal forecasts of soil moisture for forestry applications in Finland
Otto Hyvärinen, Ari Venäläinen, and Andrea Vajda
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 23–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-23-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-23-2020, 2020
Short summary
Long-range forecasts for the energy market – a case study
Otto Hyvärinen, Antti Mäkelä, Matti Kämäräinen, and Hilppa Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 89–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-89-2017, 2017
Short summary

Cited articles

Baran, S. and Lerch, S.: Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed, Environmetrics, 27, 116–130, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2380, 2016. a
Buizza, R. and Leutbecher, M.: The forecast skill horizon, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 3366–3382, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2619, 2015. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
ECMWF: IFS documentation, CY43R2, Part V: Ensemble Prediction System, ECMWF, available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2016/17118-part-v-ensemble-prediction-system.pdf (last access: 2 August 2021), 2016. a
Ervasti, T., Gregow, H., Vajda, A., Laurila, T. K., and Mäkelä, A.: Mapping users' expectations regarding extended-range forecasts, Adv. Sci. Res., 15, 99–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-15-99-2018, 2018. a
Download
Short summary
Wind speed forecasts have many potential users that could benefit from skilful forecasts. We validated weekly mean speed forecasts for Finland using forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We concentrate on winter (November, December and January) forecasts. The forecasts proved to be skilful until the third week, but the longest skilful lead time depends on how the skill is calculated and what is used as the reference.