Articles | Volume 19
01 Jun 2022
 | 01 Jun 2022

Predictability analysis and skillful scale verification of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) in the COSMO-D2 high resolution ensemble system

Michele Salmi, Chiara Marsigli, and Manfred Dorninger

Data sets

Open Data Server of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) Deutscher Wetterdienst

Short summary
High resolution, probabilistic weather prediction systems are increasingly able to model lightning activity with unprecedented accuracy. Is the probabilistic approach skillful when applied to localized, deep convection? This work shows that the ensemble prediction system maintained by the German Weather Service is able to provide a useful forecast of lightning activity at a scale of around 200 km and that the probabilistic approach can anticipate possible lack of accuracy in both time and space.