Articles | Volume 19
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 29–38, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 29–38, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022
 
01 Jun 2022
01 Jun 2022

Predictability analysis and skillful scale verification of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) in the COSMO-D2 high resolution ensemble system

Michele Salmi et al.

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Short summary
High resolution, probabilistic weather prediction systems are increasingly able to model lightning activity with unprecedented accuracy. Is the probabilistic approach skillful when applied to localized, deep convection? This work shows that the ensemble prediction system maintained by the German Weather Service is able to provide a useful forecast of lightning activity at a scale of around 200 km and that the probabilistic approach can anticipate possible lack of accuracy in both time and space.