Advances in Science and Research
Advances in Science and Research
ASR
Articles | Volume 19
Articles | Volume 19
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 19
01 Jun 2022
 | 01 Jun 2022

Predictability analysis and skillful scale verification of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) in the COSMO-D2 high resolution ensemble system

Michele Salmi, Chiara Marsigli, and Manfred Dorninger

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Short summary
High resolution, probabilistic weather prediction systems are increasingly able to model lightning activity with unprecedented accuracy. Is the probabilistic approach skillful when applied to localized, deep convection? This work shows that the ensemble prediction system maintained by the German Weather Service is able to provide a useful forecast of lightning activity at a scale of around 200 km and that the probabilistic approach can anticipate possible lack of accuracy in both time and space.
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