Articles | Volume 19
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 29–38, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 29–38, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022
 
01 Jun 2022
01 Jun 2022

Predictability analysis and skillful scale verification of the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) in the COSMO-D2 high resolution ensemble system

Michele Salmi et al.

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Cited articles

Baldauf, M., Gebhardt, C., Theis, S., Ritter, B., and Schraff, C.: Beschreibung des operationellen Kürzestfristvorhersagemodells COSMO-D2 und COSMO-D2-EPS und seiner Ausgabe in die Datenbanken des Deutscher Wetterdienstes (DWD), Technical Report, https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/nwv_cosmo_d2_aenderungen/nwv_cosmo_d2_aenderungen.html (last access: 28 May 2022), 2018. a
Betz, H.-D., Schmidt, K., Oettinger, P., Wirz, M.: Lightning detection with 3-D discrimination of intracloud and cloud-to-ground discharges, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L11108, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019821, 2004. a
Betz, H.-D., Schmidt, K., Laroche, P., Blanchet, B., Oettinger, W. P., Defer, E., Dziewit, Z., and Konarski, J.: LINET-An international lightning detection network in Europe, Atmos. Res., 91, 564–573, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.06.012, 2009. a
Blahak, U.: LPI (Lightning Potential Index) derived from COSMO-DE fields, COSMO General Meeting Wroclaw 2015, https://www.cosmo-model.org/content/consortium/generalMeetings/general2015/parallel/lpi_blahak.pdf (last access: 28 May 2022), 2015. a, b
Deutscher Wetterdienst: Open Data Server of the German Meteorological Service (DWD), Deutscher Wetterdienst [data set], https://opendata.dwd.de/weather/nwp/icon-d2-eps/, last access: 28 May 2022. a
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Short summary
High resolution, probabilistic weather prediction systems are increasingly able to model lightning activity with unprecedented accuracy. Is the probabilistic approach skillful when applied to localized, deep convection? This work shows that the ensemble prediction system maintained by the German Weather Service is able to provide a useful forecast of lightning activity at a scale of around 200 km and that the probabilistic approach can anticipate possible lack of accuracy in both time and space.