06 Jul 2020
| 06 Jul 2020
Regional atmospheric reanalysis activities at Deutscher Wetterdienst: review of evaluation results and application examples with a focus on renewable energy
Deutscher Wetterdienst, National Climate Monitoring, Offenbach, Germany
Deborah Niermann
Deutscher Wetterdienst, National Climate Monitoring, Offenbach, Germany
Michael Borsche
Deutscher Wetterdienst, National Climate Monitoring, Offenbach, Germany
Stephanie Fiedler
Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics, Bonn/Cologne, Germany
University of Cologne, Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, Cologne, Germany
Jan Keller
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Data Assimilation, Offenbach, Germany
Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics, Bonn/Cologne, Germany
Roland Potthast
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Data Assimilation, Offenbach, Germany
Thomas Rösch
Deutscher Wetterdienst, National Climate Monitoring, Offenbach, Germany
Thomas Spangehl
Deutscher Wetterdienst, National Climate Monitoring, Offenbach, Germany
Birger Tinz
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Marine Climate Monitoring, Hamburg, Germany
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Our study focuses on filling in missing precipitation data using an advanced neural network model. Traditional methods for estimating missing climate information often struggle in large regions where data is scarce. Our solution, which incorporates recent advances in machine learning, captures the intricate patterns of precipitation over time, especially during extreme weather events. Our model shows good performance in reconstructing large regions of missing rainfall radar data.
Abhay Devasthale, Sandra Andersson, Erik Engström, Frank Kaspar, Jörg Trentmann, Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff, Jan Fokke Meirink, Erik Kjellström, Tomas Landelius, Manu Anna Thomas, and Karl-Göran Karlsson
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Using the satellite-based climate data record CLARA-A3 spanning 1982–2020 and ERA5 reanalysis, we present climate regimes that are favourable or unfavourable for solar energy applications. We show that the favourable climate regimes are emerging over much of Europe during spring and early summer for solar energy exploitation.
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Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 109–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, 2023
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The quality of the global reanalysis ERA5, the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 and a successor version (R6G2), the new Copernicus European Regional Re-Analysis (CERRA) and a regional downscaling simulation with COSMO-CLM (HoKliSim-De) is assessed for offshore wind farm planning in the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The quality is assessed using in-situ wind measurements at the research platform FINO1 and satellite-based data of the near-surface wind speed as reference.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
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Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
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In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Christopher W. Frank, Frank Kaspar, Jan D. Keller, Till Adams, Miriam Felkers, Bernd Fischer, Marcus Handte, Pedro José Marrón, Hinrich Paulsen, Markus Neteler, Jochen Schiewe, Marvin Schuchert, Christian Nickel, Richard Wacker, and Richard Figura
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Access to high quality weather and climate data is crucial for a wide range of societal and economic issues. It allows optimising industrial processes with respect to efficiency. The goal of the research project FAIR is to simplify the information exchange between the DWD and economical players. This paper summarizes the results of the requirement analysis of three use cases and presents the deduced technical architecture and FAIR services aiming at a user-friendly exchange of weather data.
Lisa Hannak, Karsten Friedrich, Florian Imbery, and Frank Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 175–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-175-2019, 2019
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In order to analyze the impact on long time series by the transition from manual to automatic sunshine duration devices, parallel measurements of German climate reference stations are used. The different measurement principles (glass sphere and photodiode) cause systematic differences between the observations. With a linear regression model (used to adjust the automatic measurements) we want to prevent breaks in long time series of daily sunshine duration.
Frank Kaspar, Michael Borsche, Uwe Pfeifroth, Jörg Trentmann, Jaqueline Drücke, and Paul Becker
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 119–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-119-2019, 2019
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In this study, we assess balancing effects between photovoltaics and wind energy. On average, the seasonal cycles complement each other in Germany as well as in Europe. The frequency of events with a risk of low electricity generation is analyzed. The results illustrate that the number of such events is reduced when offshore regions are included, or when a combined system of PV and wind energy is considered. A European-wide analysis also leads to a distinct reduction of such events.
Frank Kaspar, Frank Kratzenstein, and Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 75–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-75-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-75-2019, 2019
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During recent years, Germany’s national meteorological service has significantly expanded the open access to its climate observations. To improve the interactive and user-friendly access to the data, a new data portal has been developed. The portal serves a variety of user requirements that result from the broad range of applications of DWD’s climate data. The focus of the recent developments was on improved access to German station data.
Kai-Uwe Eiselt, Frank Kaspar, Thomas Mölg, Stefan Krähenmann, Rafael Posada, and Jens O. Riede
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 163–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-163-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-163-2017, 2017
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Frank Kaspar, Lisa Hannak, and Klaus-Jürgen Schreiber
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 163–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-163-2016, 2016
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Germany's national meteorological service (DWD) operates a network of so-called climate reference stations. At these stations parallel measurements are performed in order to allow the comparison of manual and automatic observations. We present an analysis of parallel measurements of temperature at 2 m height. It is shown that the automation of stations did not cause an artificial increase in the series of daily mean temperature. A bias occurs for maximum temperature in specific configurations.
Michael Borsche, Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss, and Frank Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 151–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-151-2016, 2016
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Rafael Posada, Domingos Nascimento, Francisco Osvaldo S. Neto, Jens Riede, and Frank Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 97–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-97-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-97-2016, 2016
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To respond to the challenges of climate change, Angola, Botswana, Germany, Namibia, South Africa and Zambia have initiated the regional competence centre SASSCAL. As part of the initiative, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) cooperates with the meteorological services of Angola, Botswana and Zambia to improve the management of climate data. First results of the cooperation between DWD and the Angolan Meteorological Services (INAMET) are presented in order to provide hints for comparable activities.
M. Borsche, A. K. Kaiser-Weiss, P. Undén, and F. Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 207–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-207-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-207-2015, 2015
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A. K. Kaiser-Weiss, F. Kaspar, V. Heene, M. Borsche, D. G. H. Tan, P. Poli, A. Obregon, and H. Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 187–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-187-2015, 2015
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Wind speed measured at the German stations correlate well with reanalysis fields. Monthly means from two global reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-Interim) and one regional reanalysis (COSMO-REA6) were analysed and correlate well for the majority of the German stations. Thus we conclude that the monthly and seasonal anomalies recorded at these stations can be understood as representative for a spatial area comparable to the resolution of the reanalyses, at least for the recent years.
F. Kaspar, J. Helmschrot, A. Mhanda, M. Butale, W. de Clercq, J. K. Kanyanga, F. O. S. Neto, S. Kruger, M. Castro Matsheka, G. Muche, T. Hillmann, K. Josenhans, R. Posada, J. Riede, M. Seely, C. Ribeiro, P. Kenabatho, R. Vogt, and N. Jürgens
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 171–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-171-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-171-2015, 2015
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One task of the “Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management” (www.sasscal.org) is the provision of climate data for Southern Africa. Extension and improvements of observational networks in Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and South Africa are supported. This effort is complemented by an improvement of climate data management at national weather authorities, capacity building activities and an extension of the data bases with historical climate data.
H. Gregow, P. Poli, H. M. Mäkelä, K. Jylhä, A. K. Kaiser-Weiss, A. Obregon, D. G. H. Tan, S. Kekki, and F. Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-63-2015, 2015
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F. Kaspar, B. Tinz, H. Mächel, and L. Gates
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 57–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-57-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-57-2015, 2015
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F. Kaspar, K. Zimmermann, and C. Polte-Rudolf
Adv. Sci. Res., 11, 93–99, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-11-93-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-11-93-2014, 2014
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Plant phenology is the study of periodically recurring patterns of growth and development of plants during the year. First plant phenological observations have been performed in Germany already in the 18th century. Today, Germany’s national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) maintains a dense phenological observation network and a database with phenological observations.
F. Kaspar, G. Müller-Westermeier, E. Penda, H. Mächel, K. Zimmermann, A. Kaiser-Weiss, and T. Deutschländer
Adv. Sci. Res., 10, 99–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-99-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-99-2013, 2013
K.-G. Karlsson, A. Riihelä, R. Müller, J. F. Meirink, J. Sedlar, M. Stengel, M. Lockhoff, J. Trentmann, F. Kaspar, R. Hollmann, and E. Wolters
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A. Riihelä, T. Manninen, V. Laine, K. Andersson, and F. Kaspar
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3743–3762, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3743-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3743-2013, 2013
Domenico Cimini, Rémi Gandoin, Stephanie Fiedler, Claudia Acquistapace, Andrea Balotti, Sabrina Gentile, Edoardo Geraldi, Christine Knist, Pauline Martinet, Saverio T. Nilo, Giandomenico Pace, Bernhard Pospichal, and Filomena Romano
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-186, 2024
Preprint under review for AMT
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Klaus Vobig, Roland Potthast, and Klaus Stephan
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2876, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2876, 2024
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We present a novel approach to targeted covariance inflation (TCI) which aims to improve the assimilation of 3D radar reflectivity and, eventually, the short-term forecast of reflectivity and precipitation.
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Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael J. Prather, Alexander T. Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Christopher J. Smith, Steven T. Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2528, 2024
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The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) aimed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. In this paper, we review its contribution to AR6, and the wider understanding of the role of these species in climate and climate change. We identify remaining challenges concluding with recommendations aimed to improve the utility and uptake of climate model data to address the role of short-lived climate forcers in the Earth system.
Johannes Meuer, Laurens M. Bouwer, Frank Kaspar, Roman Lehmann, Wolfgang Karl, Thomas Ludwig, and Christopher Kadow
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1392, 2024
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Our study focuses on filling in missing precipitation data using an advanced neural network model. Traditional methods for estimating missing climate information often struggle in large regions where data is scarce. Our solution, which incorporates recent advances in machine learning, captures the intricate patterns of precipitation over time, especially during extreme weather events. Our model shows good performance in reconstructing large regions of missing rainfall radar data.
Abhay Devasthale, Sandra Andersson, Erik Engström, Frank Kaspar, Jörg Trentmann, Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff, Jan Fokke Meirink, Erik Kjellström, Tomas Landelius, Manu Anna Thomas, and Karl-Göran Karlsson
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Stephanie Fiedler, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Christopher J. Smith, Paul Griffiths, Ryan J. Kramer, Toshihiko Takemura, Robert J. Allen, Ulas Im, Matthew Kasoar, Angshuman Modak, Steven Turnock, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris, Daniel M. Westervelt, Laura J. Wilcox, Alcide Zhao, William J. Collins, Michael Schulz, Gunnar Myhre, and Piers M. Forster
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Thomas Spangehl, Michael Borsche, Deborah Niermann, Frank Kaspar, Semjon Schimanke, Susanne Brienen, Thomas Möller, and Maren Brast
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 109–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, 2023
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Florian Baur, Leonhard Scheck, Christina Stumpf, Christina Köpken-Watts, and Roland Potthast
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 5305–5326, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-5305-2023, 2023
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Mahdi Boroughani, Fahimeh Mirchooli, Mojtaba Hadavifar, and Stephanie Fiedler
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Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
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Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
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The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
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Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Mark Reyers, Stephanie Fiedler, Patrick Ludwig, Christoph Böhm, Volker Wennrich, and Yaping Shao
Clim. Past, 19, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-517-2023, 2023
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In this study we performed high-resolution climate model simulations for the hyper-arid Atacama Desert for the mid-Pliocene (3.2 Ma). The aim is to uncover the atmospheric processes that are involved in the enhancement of strong rainfall events during this period. We find that strong upper-level moisture fluxes (so-called moisture conveyor belts) originating in the tropical eastern Pacific are the main driver for increased rainfall in the mid-Pliocene.
Shunji Kotsuki, Takemasa Miyoshi, Keiichi Kondo, and Roland Potthast
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8325–8348, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8325-2022, 2022
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Data assimilation plays an important part in numerical weather prediction (NWP) in terms of combining forecasted states and observations. While data assimilation methods in NWP usually assume the Gaussian error distribution, some variables in the atmosphere, such as precipitation, are known to have non-Gaussian error statistics. This study extended a widely used ensemble data assimilation algorithm to enable the assimilation of more non-Gaussian observations.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
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In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Sebastian Brune and Jan D. Keller
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1905–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1905-2022, 2022
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A post-processing of the wind speed of the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 in Central Europe is performed based on a combined physical and statistical approach. The physical basis is provided by downscaling wind speeds with the help of a diagnostic wind model, which reduces the horizontal grid point spacing by a factor of 8. The statistical correction using a neural network based on different variables of the reanalysis leads to an improvement of 30 % in RMSE compared to COSMO-REA6.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
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The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Eduardo Weide Luiz and Stephanie Fiedler
Wind Energ. Sci., 7, 1575–1591, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1575-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-1575-2022, 2022
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This work analyses a meteorological event, called nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs), defined as high wind speeds relatively close to the surface. There were positive and negative impacts from NLLJs. While NLLJs increased the mean power production, they also increased the variability in the wind with height. Our results imply that long NLLJ events are also larger, affecting many wind turbines at the same time. Short NLLJ events are more local, having stronger effects on power variability.
Julian Steinheuer, Carola Detring, Frank Beyrich, Ulrich Löhnert, Petra Friederichs, and Stephanie Fiedler
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 3243–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3243-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-3243-2022, 2022
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Doppler wind lidars (DWLs) allow the determination of wind profiles with high vertical resolution and thus provide an alternative to meteorological towers. We address the question of whether wind gusts can be derived since they are short-lived phenomena. Therefore, we compare different DWL configurations and develop a new method applicable to all of them. A fast continuous scanning mode that completes a full observation cycle within 3.4 s is found to be the best-performing configuration.
Sebastian Brune, Jan D. Keller, and Sabrina Wahl
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 115–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-115-2021, 2021
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Correct estimates of wind speed between 60 and 200 m above ground are of great interest for the renewable energy sector. Observed wind speeds are compared to three different reanalyses. ERA5 and COSMO-REA6 outperform MERRA-2 at offshore, flat and hilly sites. Over land, ERA5 models nighttime wind speed better than COSMO-REA6 due to better representation of the low level jet through higher vertical resolution, a more comprehensive data assimilation scheme, and/or the more recent model version.
Robin D. Lamboll, Chris D. Jones, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephanie Fiedler, Bjørn H. Samset, Nathan P. Gillett, Joeri Rogelj, and Piers M. Forster
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3683–3695, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021, 2021
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Lockdowns to avoid the spread of COVID-19 have created an unprecedented reduction in human emissions. We can estimate the changes in emissions at a country level, but to make predictions about how this will affect our climate, we need more precise information about where the emissions happen. Here we combine older estimates of where emissions normally occur with very recent estimates of sector activity levels to enable different groups to make simulations of the climatic effects of lockdown.
Arianna Valmassoi and Jan D. Keller
Adv. Sci. Res., 18, 41–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-41-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-18-41-2021, 2021
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
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We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Christopher W. Frank, Frank Kaspar, Jan D. Keller, Till Adams, Miriam Felkers, Bernd Fischer, Marcus Handte, Pedro José Marrón, Hinrich Paulsen, Markus Neteler, Jochen Schiewe, Marvin Schuchert, Christian Nickel, Richard Wacker, and Richard Figura
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 183–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-183-2020, 2020
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Access to high quality weather and climate data is crucial for a wide range of societal and economic issues. It allows optimising industrial processes with respect to efficiency. The goal of the research project FAIR is to simplify the information exchange between the DWD and economical players. This paper summarizes the results of the requirement analysis of three use cases and presents the deduced technical architecture and FAIR services aiming at a user-friendly exchange of weather data.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
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The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Lisa Hannak, Karsten Friedrich, Florian Imbery, and Frank Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 175–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-175-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-175-2019, 2019
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In order to analyze the impact on long time series by the transition from manual to automatic sunshine duration devices, parallel measurements of German climate reference stations are used. The different measurement principles (glass sphere and photodiode) cause systematic differences between the observations. With a linear regression model (used to adjust the automatic measurements) we want to prevent breaks in long time series of daily sunshine duration.
Frank Kaspar, Michael Borsche, Uwe Pfeifroth, Jörg Trentmann, Jaqueline Drücke, and Paul Becker
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 119–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-119-2019, 2019
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In this study, we assess balancing effects between photovoltaics and wind energy. On average, the seasonal cycles complement each other in Germany as well as in Europe. The frequency of events with a risk of low electricity generation is analyzed. The results illustrate that the number of such events is reduced when offshore regions are included, or when a combined system of PV and wind energy is considered. A European-wide analysis also leads to a distinct reduction of such events.
Frank Kaspar, Frank Kratzenstein, and Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 75–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-75-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-75-2019, 2019
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During recent years, Germany’s national meteorological service has significantly expanded the open access to its climate observations. To improve the interactive and user-friendly access to the data, a new data portal has been developed. The portal serves a variety of user requirements that result from the broad range of applications of DWD’s climate data. The focus of the recent developments was on improved access to German station data.
Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Wan Ting Katty Huang, Petri Räisänen, Declan O'Donnell, Nicolas Bellouin, Philip Stier, Joonas Merikanto, Twan van Noije, Risto Makkonen, and Ulrike Lohmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6821–6841, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019, 2019
Stephanie Fiedler, Bjorn Stevens, Matthew Gidden, Steven J. Smith, Keywan Riahi, and Detlef van Vuuren
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 989–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, 2019
Rita Glowienka-Hense, Andreas Hense, Thomas Spangehl, and Marc Schröder
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-141, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Ensemble forecast verification treats the issues of forecast errors and uncertainty estimated from ensemble spread. We suggest measures based on relative entropy. For continuous variables correlation and the mean ratio of the ensemble spread to climate variance (analysis of variance (anova)) are related to these entropies. For categorical data corresponding scores are deduced that allow the comparison with continuous data.
Yan Li, Birger Tinz, Hans von Storch, Qingyuan Wang, Qingliang Zhou, and Yani Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 643–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-643-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-643-2018, 2018
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In order to construct a long-term homogeneous surface air temperature (SAT) series (more than 100 years), based on quality control, interpolation and homogeneity methods, we objectively establish a set of homogenized monthly SAT series in Qingdao, China from 1899 to 2014. Then long-term climate change trends can be described. The SAT in Qingdao has a notable warming of 0.11 °C per decade during 1899–2014. The coldest period occurred in 1909–1918 and the warmest period occurred in 1999–2008.
Armin Geisinger, Andreas Behrendt, Volker Wulfmeyer, Jens Strohbach, Jochen Förstner, and Roland Potthast
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4705–4726, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4705-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4705-2017, 2017
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A new backscatter lidar forward operator for an aerosol-chemistry-transport model is presented which allows for a quantitative comparison of model output and backscatter lidar measurements from existing networks with unprecedented detail. By applying the forward operator, aerosol distribution model simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption could be compared both quantitatively and qualitatively to measurements of the automated ceilometer lidar network in Germany.
Kai-Uwe Eiselt, Frank Kaspar, Thomas Mölg, Stefan Krähenmann, Rafael Posada, and Jens O. Riede
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 163–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-163-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-163-2017, 2017
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As one element of the SASSCAL initiative (a cooperation of Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, South Africa and Germany) networks of automatic weather stations have been installed or improved in Southern Africa. Here we compare interpolation methods for monthly minimum and maximum temperatures which were calculated from hourly measurements. The best interpolation results have been achieved combining multiple linear regression with three dimensional inverse distance weighted interpolation.
Bjorn Stevens, Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, Karsten Peters, Sebastian Rast, Jobst Müsse, Steven J. Smith, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 433–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017, 2017
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A simple analytic description of aerosol optical properties and their main effects on clouds is developed and described. The analytic description is easy to use and easy to modify and should aid experimentation to help understand how aerosol radiative and cloud interactions effect climate and circulation. The climatology is recommended for adoption by models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
Frank Kaspar, Lisa Hannak, and Klaus-Jürgen Schreiber
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 163–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-163-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-163-2016, 2016
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Germany's national meteorological service (DWD) operates a network of so-called climate reference stations. At these stations parallel measurements are performed in order to allow the comparison of manual and automatic observations. We present an analysis of parallel measurements of temperature at 2 m height. It is shown that the automation of stations did not cause an artificial increase in the series of daily mean temperature. A bias occurs for maximum temperature in specific configurations.
Michael Borsche, Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss, and Frank Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 151–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-151-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-151-2016, 2016
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Wind speeds derived from the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 and from two global reanalyses of ECMWF (ERA-Interim and ERA-20C) have been compared to tower measurements covering heights from 10 m up to 140 m, located in the North Sea, in The Netherlands, and in Northeast Germany. In general, the monthly and hourly mean values of COSMO-REA6 are at least as close to the measurements as the global reanalyses, and in the correlation of daily means an added value of COSMO-REA6 is found.
Alexander Loew, Jian Peng, and Michael Borsche
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2499–2532, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2499-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2499-2016, 2016
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Surface water and energy fluxes are essential components of the Earth system. The present paper introduces a new framework for the estimation of surface energy and water fluxes at the land surface, which allows for temporally and spatially high resolved flux estimates at the global scale. The framework maximizes the usage of existing long-term satellite data records. Overall the results indicate very good agreement with in situ observations when compared against 49 FLUXNET stations worldwide.
Armin Geisinger, Andreas Behrendt, Volker Wulfmeyer, Jens Strohbach, Jochen Förstner, Roland Potthast, and Ina Mattis
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-609, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2016-609, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Hereby, we present a new backscatter lidar forward operator which allows for a quantitative comparison of atmospheric chemistry models and backscatter lidar measurements. We applied the operator on model predictions of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption where the model obviously overestimated the ash concentration. Uncertainties of the operator were minimized by applying averaging algorithms and performing sensitivity studies. Further steps towards quantitative model validation were identified.
Rafael Posada, Domingos Nascimento, Francisco Osvaldo S. Neto, Jens Riede, and Frank Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 97–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-97-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-97-2016, 2016
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To respond to the challenges of climate change, Angola, Botswana, Germany, Namibia, South Africa and Zambia have initiated the regional competence centre SASSCAL. As part of the initiative, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) cooperates with the meteorological services of Angola, Botswana and Zambia to improve the management of climate data. First results of the cooperation between DWD and the Angolan Meteorological Services (INAMET) are presented in order to provide hints for comparable activities.
N. Huneeus, S. Basart, S. Fiedler, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Benedetti, J. Mulcahy, E. Terradellas, C. Pérez García-Pando, G. Pejanovic, S. Nickovic, P. Arsenovic, M. Schulz, E. Cuevas, J. M. Baldasano, J. Pey, S. Remy, and B. Cvetkovic
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4967–4986, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016, 2016
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Five dust models are evaluated regarding their performance in predicting an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe (NE). Models predict the onset and evolution of the event for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences in lead times for each model. The models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards NE. This is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical dust distribution and horizontal wind.
M. Borsche, A. K. Kaiser-Weiss, P. Undén, and F. Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 207–218, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-207-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-207-2015, 2015
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Within the European Union’s seventh Framework Programme project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses (UERRA), ensembles of RRAs covering the European area are produced and their uncertainties are quantified. In this study, we discuss different methods for quantifying the uncertainty of RRAs in order to answer the question to which extent the smaller scale information (or resulting statistics) provided by the RRAs can be relied on.
A. K. Kaiser-Weiss, F. Kaspar, V. Heene, M. Borsche, D. G. H. Tan, P. Poli, A. Obregon, and H. Gregow
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 187–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-187-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-187-2015, 2015
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Wind speed measured at the German stations correlate well with reanalysis fields. Monthly means from two global reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-Interim) and one regional reanalysis (COSMO-REA6) were analysed and correlate well for the majority of the German stations. Thus we conclude that the monthly and seasonal anomalies recorded at these stations can be understood as representative for a spatial area comparable to the resolution of the reanalyses, at least for the recent years.
F. Kaspar, J. Helmschrot, A. Mhanda, M. Butale, W. de Clercq, J. K. Kanyanga, F. O. S. Neto, S. Kruger, M. Castro Matsheka, G. Muche, T. Hillmann, K. Josenhans, R. Posada, J. Riede, M. Seely, C. Ribeiro, P. Kenabatho, R. Vogt, and N. Jürgens
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 171–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-171-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-171-2015, 2015
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One task of the “Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management” (www.sasscal.org) is the provision of climate data for Southern Africa. Extension and improvements of observational networks in Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and South Africa are supported. This effort is complemented by an improvement of climate data management at national weather authorities, capacity building activities and an extension of the data bases with historical climate data.
H. Gregow, P. Poli, H. M. Mäkelä, K. Jylhä, A. K. Kaiser-Weiss, A. Obregon, D. G. H. Tan, S. Kekki, and F. Kaspar
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-63-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-63-2015, 2015
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Many users of climate information are unaware of the availability of reanalysis feedback data and input observations, and uptake of feedback data is rather low. The most important factors limiting the use of this data is that the users feel that there is no easy interface to get the data or they do not find it at all. The relevant communities should invest resources to develop tools and provide training to bridge the gap between current capabilities and comprehensive exploitation of the data.
F. Kaspar, B. Tinz, H. Mächel, and L. Gates
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 57–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-57-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-57-2015, 2015
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Germany’s national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) houses in Offenbach and Hamburg huge archives of historical handwritten journals of weather observations. They comprise not only observations from Germany, but also of the oceans and land stations in many parts of the world. DWD works on the digitisation and quality control of these archives. The paper presents the current status.
F. Kaspar, K. Zimmermann, and C. Polte-Rudolf
Adv. Sci. Res., 11, 93–99, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-11-93-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-11-93-2014, 2014
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Plant phenology is the study of periodically recurring patterns of growth and development of plants during the year. First plant phenological observations have been performed in Germany already in the 18th century. Today, Germany’s national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) maintains a dense phenological observation network and a database with phenological observations.
J. D. Keller and A. Hense
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/npgd-1-1509-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npgd-1-1509-2014, 2014
Preprint withdrawn
J. Peng, M. Borsche, Y. Liu, and A. Loew
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3913–3919, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3913-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3913-2013, 2013
F. Kaspar, G. Müller-Westermeier, E. Penda, H. Mächel, K. Zimmermann, A. Kaiser-Weiss, and T. Deutschländer
Adv. Sci. Res., 10, 99–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-99-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-99-2013, 2013
K.-G. Karlsson, A. Riihelä, R. Müller, J. F. Meirink, J. Sedlar, M. Stengel, M. Lockhoff, J. Trentmann, F. Kaspar, R. Hollmann, and E. Wolters
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5351–5367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5351-2013, 2013
A. Riihelä, T. Manninen, V. Laine, K. Andersson, and F. Kaspar
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3743–3762, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3743-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3743-2013, 2013
S. Dietrich, M. Werner, T. Spangehl, and G. Lohmann
Clim. Past, 9, 13–26, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-13-2013, 2013
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Borsche, M., Kaiser-Weiss, A. K., and Kaspar, F.: Wind speed variability between 10 and 116 m height from the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 compared to wind mast measurements over Northern Germany and the Netherlands, Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 151–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-151-2016, 2016.
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Short summary
Reanalyses are long-term meteorological datasets that are based on numerical weather prediction models and the assimilation of historic observations. The regional model COSMO of Germany’s national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) has been used to develop regional reanalyses with spatial resolution of up to 2 km. In this paper, we provide an overview of evaluation results and application examples at the European and national German level with a focus on renewable energy.
Reanalyses are long-term meteorological datasets that are based on numerical weather prediction...
