This paper is a summary of a very high resolution climate reanalysis carried out for a domain covering Ireland, using the HARMONIE-AROME numerical weather prediction model. Details of the simulations and set-up as well as a preliminary analysis of the main output variables are included in the study.
This article describes the high-resolution Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) AEMET-γSREPS. This is the first convection-permitting EPS that operationally provide forecasts for a region of Antarctica. Kilometric-resolution EPSs, such γSREPS, will improve the short-range prediction in Antarctica in the following years. This will have a positive impact on safety and logistic activities at Antarctic research stations.
This study provides a comparison between several climate change indices trends of two very different basins in Mexico, one located in the northern arid region (the Conchos River basin) and the other in the southern humid area (the Usumacinta River basin). A clear warming signal was found for the two basins in addition to an increment in the diurnal temperature range, in agreement with other studies in Mexico. Also, the Conchos basin was found to be more humid and the Usumacinta drier.
Globally we are facing both an air quality crisis and a communication emergency. Communication efforts so far have been based on a one-way provision of information from experts to society, and have arguably failed in their mission to foster a more engaged society, or to result in cleaner air. This paper supports the case for moving away from one-way communication, and identifies five benefits of a practical two-way communication between experts and citizens in order to engender positive change.
Christopher W. Frank, Frank Kaspar, Jan D. Keller, Till Adams, Miriam Felkers, Bernd Fischer, Marcus Handte, Pedro José Marrón, Hinrich Paulsen, Markus Neteler, Jochen Schiewe, Marvin Schuchert, Christian Nickel, Richard Wacker, and Richard Figura
Access to high quality weather and climate data is crucial for a wide range of societal and economic issues. It allows optimising industrial processes with respect to efficiency. The goal of the research project FAIR is to simplify the information exchange between the DWD and economical players. This paper summarizes the results of the requirement analysis of three use cases and presents the deduced technical architecture and FAIR services aiming at a user-friendly exchange of weather data.
Stephen Blenkinsop, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Steven C. Chan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Elizabeth Kendon, Geert Lenderink, Elizabeth Lewis, Xiao-Feng Li, Seth Westra, Lisa Alexander, Richard P. Allan, Peter Berg, Robert J. H. Dunn, Marie Ekström, Jason P. Evans, Greg Holland, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Albert Klein-Tank, Dennis Lettenmaier, Vimal Mishra, Andreas F. Prein, Justin Sheffield, and Mari R. Tye
Measurements of sub-daily (e.g. hourly) rainfall totals are essential if we are to understand short, intense bursts of rainfall that cause flash floods. We might expect the intensity of such events to increase in a warming climate but these are poorly realised in projections of future climate change. The INTENSE project is collating a global dataset of hourly rainfall measurements and linking with new developments in climate models to understand the characteristics and causes of these events.
The OpenIFS programme of ECMWF maintains a version of the ECMWF forecast model for use in education and research at universities, national meteorological services and other institutes. Application of OpenIFS as a training tool is wide ranging. The OpenIFS user meetings and training events demonstrate advanced and easy-to-use graphical tools and training technologies, e.g. OpenIFS and Metview “virtual machines”. This paper shows the education activity in the OpenIFS programme with some examples.
This study exemplifies the ability of the self-organizing maps method to directly define well known wind regimes over Israel during the entire year, except summer, period at 12:00 UTC. This procedure may be applied at other hours and is highly relevant to future automatic climatological analysis and applications. The investigation is performed by analysing surface wind measurements. The relation between the synoptic variables and the wind regimes is revealed from composite calculations.
In this study, we assess balancing effects between photovoltaics and wind energy. On average, the seasonal cycles complement each other in Germany as well as in Europe. The frequency of events with a risk of low electricity generation is analyzed. The results illustrate that the number of such events is reduced when offshore regions are included, or when a combined system of PV and wind energy is considered. A European-wide analysis also leads to a distinct reduction of such events.
This article has been possible because of the cooperation between Television of Catalonia and the Applied Physics Department of the University of Barcelona, via the work of an intern student who was working from home because of the lockdown during the COVID19 pandemic.
The mood of people we have studied in this article was similar to the one experimented by researchers. Weeks and months at home, with the only outside contact through the window, and social media.
This new framework for high resoluted seasonal forecast allows an easier use of the information contained in the complex system of atmospheric circulations through their reduction to a limited number of circulation types starting from a global ensemble model. Further investigations are ongoing in order to lead predictions of the risk of heavy rainfall, drought or heat waves, all important parameters for agriculture, water management and severe weather risk assessment.
This study examines the synoptic conditions around Ireland during the winter of 2013/2014, which produced record-breaking sea states and severe coastal damage. Using a wave model, we analysed four of the most energetic storms providing an overview of the height, directionality and periodicity of the waves. This study provides important information for the development of renewable ocean energy extraction, where deployment location selection and survivability are a primary concern.
The Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has been producing since 2006 a set of reference downscaled regional climate change projections over Spain. Its strategy aims at exploiting all the available sources of information on climate change projections. In the future this service aims at complementing the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) in terms of resolution, expression of uncertainty, visualization, tailored adjustments and reinforcement of links with national users.
The gridded dataset of 1845–2016 monthly precipitation series over the upper Adda river basin is presented. It allows to study the evolution of the precipitation regime over the region and to reconstruct extreme past events. The areal 1845–2016 annual precipitation series over the basin is in overall agreement with annual runoff. While the precipitation series shows no significant trend, a significant decrease is pointed out for runoff, probably driven by both natural and anthropic causes.
The Northeast Atlantic possesses an energetic and variable wind and wave climate which has a large potential for renewable energy extraction. The role of surface winds in the generation of ocean waves means that global atmospheric circulation patterns and wave climate characteristics are inherently connected. In this study we investigated the influence of large scale atmospheric oscillations on waves in the Northeast Atlantic using a high resolution wave projection dataset.
An online survey was used to map the needs and preferences of the Finnish general public about extended-range forecasts and their presentation. Survey results guided the co-design process of novel extended-range forecasts in the project. The respondents considered that the tailored extended-range forecasts would be beneficial in planning activities, preparing for weather risks and scheduling everyday life. They also valued impact information higher than advice on how to prepare for the impacts.
The adjustment of bias, i.e., systematic errors, of climate models are a necessity when comparing results of an ensemble of these models. Usually, the meteorological parameters such as temperature or rainfall amounts themselves are subject to bias adjustments. We present a new method to apply bias adjustment to so-called climate indicators which are derived from those parameters, e.g., the number of days warmer than 30 °C or the number of days with more than 20 mm of rain.
In this modelling study, we conclude that groundwater is used unsustainably for irrigation in several areas of the
Euro-Mediterranean region. In the southern Iberian Peninsula, we estimate the potential effects of reducing irrigation groundwater abstractions to sustainable amounts to prevent long-term decline of groundwater storage. These restrictions may cause crop production losses but halt groundwater depletion and increase river flow during dry periods which is beneficial for ecosystems.
During recent years, Germany’s national meteorological service has significantly expanded the open access to its climate observations. To improve the interactive and user-friendly access to the data, a new data portal has been developed. The portal serves a variety of user requirements that result from the broad range of applications of DWD’s climate data. The focus of the recent developments was on improved access to German station data.
Reanalyses are long-term meteorological datasets that are based on numerical weather prediction models and the assimilation of historic observations. The regional model COSMO of Germany’s national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) has been used to develop regional reanalyses with spatial resolution of up to 2 km. In this paper, we provide an overview of evaluation results and application examples at the European and national German level with a focus on renewable energy.
Gusts represent short-lived extremes within the time variation of the wind. Despite their short duration, they are responsible for the majority of damage and disruption due to wind. This study reviews new literature and innovative methods regarding the forecasting of gusts for weather and climate applications, the challenges and benefits that come with increasing resolution in computer models of the weather, and areas, such as wind power, where gust forecasting attains increasing importance.
Alberto Troccoli, Clare Goodess, Phil Jones, Lesley Penny, Steve Dorling, Colin Harpham, Laurent Dubus, Sylvie Parey, Sandra Claudel, Duc-Huy Khong, Philip E. Bett, Hazel Thornton, Thierry Ranchin, Lucien Wald, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Matteo De Felice, David Brayshaw, Emma Suckling, Barbara Percy, and Jon Blower
The European Climatic Energy Mixes, an EU Copernicus Climate Change Service project, has produced, in close collaboration with prospective users, a proof-of-concept climate service, or Demonstrator, designed to enable the energy industry assess how well different energy supply mixes in Europe will meet demand, over different time horizons (from seasonal to long-term decadal planning), focusing on the role climate has on the mixes. Its concept, methodology and some results are presented here.
Since the 1990s, precipitation data with a high temporal resolution (1 minute) have been recorded by two independent observation networks in Hesse/Central Germany. In our paper we assess and compare the data quality of the two networks and identify connections between precipitation intensity and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Resulting differences between intense daily and sub-daily (15 minute) events underline the importance of enhancing short-duration precipitation measurements.
Lakes affect local weather and climate. This influence should be taken into account in NWP models through parameterization. For the atmospheric simulation, global coverage of lake depth data is essential. To provide such data Global Lake Database (GLDB) has been created. More than 3 thousand in-situ lake depths all over the globe have been added. However over 83 % of newly added data have not been found on global ecosystem map ECOCLIMAP2.
A comparison of forest damage with windstorm intensity in Finland suggests that the volume of forest damage follows approximately a power relation as a function of wind gust speed with a power of ~10. This tentative estimate holds for typical windstorms having mainly westerly winds and affecting large areas in southern and central parts of Finland. The estimate can be utilized when preparing impact-based predictions of windstorms.
Changes in Polar jet circulation bring more dust from Sahara to Greenland. The poleward transport of warm, moist, and dust-laden air masses from the Sahara results in ice melting in Greenland. A meandering polar jet was discovered as responsible for both the emission and the poleward transport of dust. The emission has been linked to an intense Saharan cyclone that formed in April 2011, as a result of the intrusion of an upper-level trough emanating from the polar jet and orographic blocking.
The Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) has recently completed two Irish climate simulations for the period 1981–2016. The resultant high resolution (hourly, 1.5 and 2 km) gridded climate datasets will be of particular interest to those involved in research, industry and government. We provide a complete list of the variables archived at ICHEC and present station-based uncertainty estimates for several of the “fundamental” (e.g. precipitation) and more “exotic” (e.g. CAPE 3km) variables.
Downward-facing shadow cameras might play a major role in future energy meteorology. Shadow cameras image shadows directly on the ground from an elevated position. They are used to validate other systems (e.g. all-sky imager based nowcasting systems, cloud speed sensors or satellite forecasts) and can potentially provide short term forecasts for solar power plants. Such forecasts are needed for electricity grids with high penetrations of renewable energy and solar power plants.